Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spennymoor Town win with a probability of 46.85%. A win for Buxton had a probability of 28.67% and a draw had a probability of 24.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spennymoor Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.37%) and 2-0 (7.69%). The likeliest Buxton win was 0-1 (7.09%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.