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Maritimo
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 26
Apr 10, 2021 at 3pm UK
Estadio dos Barreiros
Farense logo

Maritimo
1 - 0
Farense

Alipour (43')
Junior (3'), Rene (6'), Bambock (13'), Macedo (73')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Lucca (60'), Seco (78'), Djalma (79')

Preview: Maritimo vs. SC Farense - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Maritimo and SC Farense, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Maritimo welcome SC Farense to the Estadio dos Barreiros on Saturday, in a crucial game at the bottom of the Primeira Liga table.

The hosts currently sit at the foot of the table, while Farense sit just one point ahead in the relegation playoff place, although either side can move out of the bottom three with a victory on Saturday.


Match preview

Maritimo suffered a narrow 1-0 defeat away at third-placed Benfica last time out, as Luca Waldschmidt's penalty made the difference.

While that is by no means a devastating result for Os Verde-Rubros, the previous defeat to fellow strugglers Famalicao is much more concerning.

Braces from Ivo Rodrigues and Anderson fired Fama to a dominant 4-0 win, seeing them leapfrog Maritimo and sending Julio Velazquez's side to the bottom of the division.

After the departure of Milton Mendes, Velazquez was hired in March with the objective of saving the club from relegation.

He made the perfect start at his new club too, as Os Verde-Rubros picked up a 2-1 win in a Madeira derby over fellow strugglers Nacional thanks to a Rodrigo Pinho brace.

However, the two defeats since then have seen them fall back to the foot of the top flight, although they do remain just three points adrift of automatic safety.

Velazquez will definitely see Saturday as one of Maritimo's best chances to pick up three points and go ahead of a rival in the fight for survival, as they take on a Farense side who sit just one point ahead having lost three of their last four games.

However, the visitors will be equally desperate for a win of their own, with every point making a huge difference in their bid to climb out of the bottom three.

Similarly to their opponents, Farense also opted to make a managerial change to improve their chances of survival, as Sergio Vieira was dismissed after guiding the club to promotion last season, with the board bringing in former Porto captain Jorge Costa.

However, Costa has not managed to reverse their fortunes since his appointment, having picked up just 11 points from his 10 games at the helm, securing just two wins in that time.

One of those victories did come recently in a crucial game against fellow strugglers Boavista, as Lica netted the only goal in an important away win.

However, they suffered another defeat last time out, falling to a 2-1 defeat at home to fourth-placed Braga.

The Archbishops took the lead through Ali Musrati, but Pedro Henrique would quickly equalise for Farense before they suffered late heartbreak as Andraz Sporar netted an injury-time winner to snatch all three points for Braga.

Costa will feel mixed emotions following that result, as while his team did provide a good account of themselves and held a top side for the majority of the game, they ultimately came away with nothing in a time in which every point is crucial if they are to avoid the drop back down to the Segunda Liga.

He will be hopeful of a return to winning ways on Saturday, as they take on the league's basement side with the chance to move out of the relegation places with a victory.

Maritimo Primeira Liga form:
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L

SC Farense Primeira Liga form:
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L



Team News

Maritimo will be hugely boosted by the return of Rodrigo Pinho, who served a suspension last time out.

Pinho has been the talisman for his side this season, netting nine goals in 16 league games to keep Maritimo competitive in the fight for survival.

Meanwhile, centre-back Leo Andrade will also return, having served a suspension last time out for accumulating five yellow cards.

However, they will be missing defender Rene, who picked up his fifth yellow card of the season in the defeat to Benfica.

Right-back Claudio Winck will also serve a suspension after he was shown his fifth yellow card of the season last time out, further stacking the odds against Maritimo.

Farense could remain without attacker Lica, who was absent from the squad for the defeat to Braga.

The key man for Os Leoes de Faro this season has undoubtedly been Ryan Gauld, who has recorded seven goals and five assists in the Primeira Liga this campaign, giving his side the best possible chance of survival.

Maritimo possible starting lineup:
Abedzadeh; Africo, Andrade, Junior, Hermes; Guitane, Bambock, Jean, Milson; Tagueu, Pinho

SC Farense possible starting lineup:
Beto; Tavares, Cesar, Mancha, Aber; Oudrhiri, Lucca; Isidoro, Gauld, Mansilla; Henrique


SM words green background

We say: Maritimo 1-1 SC Farense

In what is one of the biggest games at the bottom of the Primeira Liga this season, Saturday's game could definitely go either way as both sides will be desperate for a victory over their rivals in the battle for survival.

On this occasion, we cannot quite separate the sides and are predicting a draw due to each team being slightly too fearful of a defeat to fully commit to attacking - a result which does not particularly benefit either outfit.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SC Farense win with a probability of 43.57%. A draw had a probability of 30.6% and a win for Maritimo had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a SC Farense win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.3%) and 1-2 (7.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.13%), while for a Maritimo win it was 1-0 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Maritimo vs Farense

Maritimo
30.8%
Draw
53.8%
SC Farense
15.4%
13
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