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History suggests Liverpool are on course for maiden Premier League crown

Only six teams have not won the Premier League title when leading at the end of January.

Liverpool hold a five-point lead at the top of the Premier League at the end of January.

Here Press Association Sport looks back at how other teams have fared in the title race from this stage of the season in the competition's history.

History on Liverpool's side

In the 26 previous Premier League seasons, the side top of the table at the end of January has gone on to win the title on 20 occasions. The exceptions were Manchester United coming from behind to overhaul Norwich (1993), Newcastle (1996) and Arsenal (2003), and the Gunners pipping United three times (1998, 2002, 2004).

Below average lead

Manchester City were 15 points clear at the end of January last year and eventually won the title by a record 19 points
Manchester City were 15 points clear at the end of January last year and eventually won the title by a record 19 points (Martin Rickett/PA)

Over those 26 seasons, the average lead held by the side at the top at the end of January is 5.2 points. Liverpool's five-point lead puts them slightly below this figure. The biggest gap enjoyed by any side at this stage is 15 points, achieved by Manchester City last season and United in 2001. Chelsea were 14 points ahead in 2006 and United 13 in 1994.

The Newcastle collapse

Kevin Keegan's exhilarating but flawed Newcastle side surrendered a big lead in 1996
Kevin Keegan's exhilarating but flawed Newcastle side surrendered a big lead in 1996 (David Jones/PA)

Only one side with a lead of six points or more at the end of January has failed to win the title – Newcastle in 1996. The Magpies were nine points clear but famously capitulated in the run-in to allow United in. Manager Kevin Keegan succumbed to United boss Sir Alex Ferguson's mind games, exploding with his oft-mimicked "I'd love it" rant. United eventually won it by four points.

Other comebacks

Sir Alex Ferguson's United overhauled Arsenal in 2003
Sir Alex Ferguson's United overhauled Arsenal in 2003 (PA)

The other most significant fightbacks saw United come from five points behind to overhaul Arsenal in 2003, while Arsenal recovered a four-point deficit at the end of January 1998 to pip United. Not all statistics from this stage of the season can tell the full story, however, as leads can continue to change hands. City led from United on goal difference only in 2012 before moving two points clear. They then surrendered that position to fall eight points behind but they staged a remarkable recovery to win on goal difference.

First timers

Leicester stayed in front in 2016
Leicester stayed in front in 2016 (Tim Goode/PA)

Liverpool's current position compares favourably with that of other first-time Premier League winners. Arsenal had to come from four points behind at the end of January for their first title in 1998 and United trailed Norwich by a point in 1993. City led only on goal difference in 2012, while Leicester were three points ahead in 2016 and Blackburn four in 1995. Only Chelsea, 10 points ahead in 2005, have had a huge lead.

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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Arsenal34245582265677
2Liverpool34228475344174
3Manchester CityMan City32227376324473
4Aston Villa34206871502166
5Tottenham HotspurSpurs32186865491660
6Manchester UnitedMan Utd33165125150153
7Newcastle UnitedNewcastle331551369541550
8West Ham UnitedWest Ham34139125463-948
9Chelsea32138116157447
10Bournemouth34129134960-1145
11Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton321111105250244
12Wolverhampton WanderersWolves34127154654-843
13Fulham34126165054-442
14Crystal Palace34109154456-1239
15Brentford3498175259-735
16Everton34118153648-1233
17Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest3479184260-1826
18Luton TownLuton3467214775-2825
19Burnley3458213769-3223
20Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd3437243392-5916


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