Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations | Group Stage

Dec 22, 2025 at 2pm UK

Mali
1 - 1
Zambia

Sinayoko (61')
Dieng (65')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Daka (90+2')
Simukonda (69')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Africa Cup of Nations clash between Mali and Zambia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mali

All competitions

This competition

Last Game: Mali 1-1 Zambia
Monday, December 22 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Next Game: Morocco vs. Mali
Friday, December 26 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	2	5
2	South Africa	3	2	4
3	Namibia	3	-3	4
4	Tunisia	3	-1	2

Zambia

All competitions

This competition

Last Game: Mali 1-1 Zambia
Monday, December 22 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Next Game: Zambia vs. Comoros
Friday, December 26 at 5.30pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Morocco	3	4	7
2	Congo DR	3	0	3
3	Zambia	3	-1	2
4	Tanzania	3	-3	2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 66.5%. A draw had a probability of 21.28% and a win for Zambia had a probability of 12.22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.08%) and 2-1 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.79%) , while for a Zambia win it was 0-1 (5.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.

Result
Mali	Draw	Zambia
66.5% ( 0.83)	21.28% ( -0.4)	12.22% ( -0.43)

Both teams to score 40.33% (

-0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.97% (

0.59)

54.02% (

-0.59)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.54% (

0.49)

75.46% (

-0.49)

Mali Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.51% (

0.47)

15.48% (

-0.47)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.63% (

0.87)

44.37% (

-0.87)

Zambia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

47.72% (

-0.37)

52.27% (

0.36)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

13.82% (

-0.24)

86.18% (

0.24)

Score Analysis

Mali 66.49%

Zambia 12.22%

Draw 21.28%

Mali	Draw	Zambia
1-0 @ 15.09% ( -0.11) 2-0 @ 14.08% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 9.14% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 8.76% ( 0.22) 3-1 @ 5.68% ( 0.08) 4-0 @ 4.08% ( 0.17) 4-1 @ 2.65% ( 0.08) 3-2 @ 1.84% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.52% ( 0.09) 5-1 @ 0.99% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.66% Total : 66.49%	1-1 @ 9.79% ( -0.17) 0-0 @ 8.09% ( -0.19) 2-2 @ 2.96% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.43% Total : 21.28%	0-1 @ 5.25% ( -0.18) 1-2 @ 3.18% ( -0.09) 0-2 @ 1.7% ( -0.08) Other @ 2.09% Total : 12.22%