Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maccabi Petah Tikva win with a probability of 37.71%. A win for Hapoel Hadera had a probability of 34.14% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maccabi Petah Tikva win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.92%) and 2-0 (7.02%). The likeliest Hapoel Hadera win was 0-1 (10.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Maccabi Petah Tikva would win this match.