Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aris Thessaloniki win with a probability of 48.46%. A win for Apollon Smirnis had a probability of 26.16% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aris Thessaloniki win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.36%) and 2-0 (8.76%). The likeliest Apollon Smirnis win was 0-1 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Aris Thessaloniki in this match.