Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paradiso win with a probability of 52.82%. A win for Mendrisio had a probability of 23.71% and a draw had a probability of 23.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paradiso win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.59%) and 2-0 (8.24%). The likeliest Mendrisio win was 0-1 (6.18%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.