Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aizawl win with a probability of 54.48%. A win for Nagaland had a probability of 25.05% and a draw had a probability of 20.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Aizawl win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.42%) and 0-2 (6.2%). The likeliest Nagaland win was 2-1 (5.92%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.96%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.