Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cittadella win with a probability of 69.85%. A draw had a probability of 19.3% and a win for Virtus Verona had a probability of 10.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cittadella win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.75%) and 3-0 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.03%), while for a Virtus Verona win it was 0-1 (4.43%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cittadella would win this match.