Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Emley win with a probability of 39%. A win for St Helens had a probability of 38.72% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Emley win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.29%) and 3-1 (4.74%). The likeliest St Helens win was 1-2 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AFC Emley would win this match.