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UEFA Conference League

Conference League | First Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Jul 7, 2022 at 7pm UK
Ecolog Arena

Shkendija
2 - 0
Ararat

Shala (21'), Nafiu (45')
Dita (35'), Nafiu (40'), Cake (44'), Ramadani (59')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Malakyan (48'), Prljevic (56'), Manoyan (63')
Coverage of the Conference League First Qualifying Round clash between Shkendija and Ararat.

Form, Standings, Stats

Shkendija

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Shkendija 0-1 Riga FC
Thursday, July 29 at 7pm in Europa Conference League
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Ararat

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Slask Wroclaw 3-3 Ararat
Thursday, July 29 at 7pm in Europa Conference League
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shkendija win with a probability of 43.6%. A win for Ararat had a probability of 33.2% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Shkendija win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.96%) and 2-0 (6.01%). The likeliest Ararat win was 1-2 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shkendija would win this match.

Result
ShkendijaDrawArarat
43.6% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)23.2% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)33.2% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)
Both teams to score 63.6% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.27% (-0.035999999999994 -0.04)37.73% (0.034999999999997 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.03% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)59.97% (0.036999999999999 0.04)
Shkendija Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.24% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)17.76% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.56% (-0.026000000000003 -0.03)48.44% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
Ararat Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.33% (-0.019000000000005 -0.02)22.67% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.68% (-0.028000000000006 -0.03)56.32% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Shkendija 43.6%
    Ararat 33.2%
    Draw 23.19%
ShkendijaDrawArarat
2-1 @ 8.92% (0.00099999999999945 0)
1-0 @ 6.96% (0.008 0.01)
2-0 @ 6.01% (0.0039999999999996 0)
3-1 @ 5.14% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-2 @ 3.82% (-0.004 -0)
3-0 @ 3.47% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-1 @ 2.22% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-2 @ 1.65% (-0.002 -0)
4-0 @ 1.5% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 3.92%
Total : 43.6%
1-1 @ 10.32% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 6.62% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-0 @ 4.03% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.89% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 0.34%
Total : 23.19%
1-2 @ 7.66%
0-1 @ 5.97% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
0-2 @ 4.43% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-3 @ 3.79% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
2-3 @ 3.28% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-3 @ 2.19%
1-4 @ 1.41% (-0.002 -0)
2-4 @ 1.22% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 3.25%
Total : 33.2%