Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pogon Szczecin win with a probability of 45.11%. A win for KR Reykjavik had a probability of 31.36% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pogon Szczecin win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.7%) and 2-0 (6.58%). The likeliest KR Reykjavik win was 1-2 (7.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.7%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pogon Szczecin would win this match.