Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Emmen win with a probability of 55.74%. A win for Helmond Sport had a probability of 23.26% and a draw had a probability of 21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Emmen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.44%) and 1-0 (7.13%). The likeliest Helmond Sport win was 1-2 (5.93%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.2%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.