Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sampaio Corrêa RJ win with a probability of 41.57%. A win for Desportiva ES had a probability of 32.65% and a draw had a probability of 25.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sampaio Corrêa RJ win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.83%) and 2-0 (5.77%). The likeliest Desportiva ES win was 1-2 (7.94%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.