Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Jose win with a probability of 69.32%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Oratorio had a probability of 9.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Jose win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (15.67%) and 0-3 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.11%), while for a Oratorio win it was 1-0 (4.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sao Jose would win this match.