Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manauara win with a probability of 42.51%. A win for Itabaiana had a probability of 28.82% and a draw had a probability of 28.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manauara win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.55%) and 2-1 (8.48%). The likeliest Itabaiana win was 0-1 (10.11%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.