Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 58.87%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Sport Recife had a probability of 16.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.48%) and 2-1 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.24%), while for a Sport Recife win it was 0-1 (6.89%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bragantino would win this match.