Preview: England vs. New Zealand - First Test prediction, squads, start time, Lord's pitch lowdown

England will be looking to get back to winning ways when they face New Zealand at Lord's in their first Test match since suffering a 4-1 thrashing in the Ashes over the winter.

The 'Bazball' era got off to a thrilling start against New Zealand back in 2022 as England romped to a 3-0 series whitewash, but a lot has changed since then and head coach Brendon McCullum can count himself lucky to still be in the job after the ECB's post-Ashes review.

Match preview

McCullum has stated that England need to "become slightly smarter" in "key moments" during games, with fans left hugely frustrated by repeated batting collapses, ill-disciplined bowling and poor fielding during the Ashes, and significant improvements will need to be made against New Zealand.

The major casualties of the Ashes debacle are long-standing opener Zak Crawley, who averages just 31.18 in 64 Tests, and former vice-captain Ollie Pope, who was replaced mid-series by Jacob Bethell after averaging just 20.83.

Emilio Gay is set to replace Crawley at the top of the order, having scored 552 runs at an average of 78.85 for Durham so far this season, while Ollie Robinson has been recalled to lead the bowling attack after a two-year absence that was largely due to fitness concerns.

England do have a strong recent record at Lord's, having suffered just one defeat in Tests at the Home of Cricket since 2023, while New Zealand have not beaten England in a Test there since a nine-wicket victory back in 1999.

Lord's is a happy hunting ground for Joe Root, who has scored more Test runs there than any other batter, while captain Ben Stokes averages 43.80 with the bat and 28.96 with the ball there.

Stokes's form with the bat has become a major talking point, with the 34-year-old scoring just one hundred in his last 26 Test innings and averaging less than 30.

As a result, McCullum has hinted he could move down to No.7 against New Zealand and wicketkeeper Jamie Smith could be promoted to No.6.

© Imago / IMAGO / Seshadri Sukumar

New Zealand, meanwhile, prepared for the three Test series by beating Ireland by an innings and 79 runs in a one-off Test in Belfast last week.

Rachin Ravindra and wicketkeeper Tom Blundell both scored centuries, while seamers Nathan Smith and Blair Tickner picked up five-wicket hauls.

Blundell's excellent 186 marked a return to form for the 35-year-old, who was averaging just 18.68 in his last 20 Tests dating back to 2023.

However, Blundell does have an impressive record against England, averaging 59.8 against them in nine matches, and he was named one of the five Wisden Cricketers of the Year in 2023 after scoring 383 runs at an average of 76.60 the previous summer.

New Zealand have also been boosted by the return of spinning all-rounder Mitchell Santner, who has recovered from a shoulder injury in time to join up with the squad for the first Test.

However, it remains to be seen whether he will get the nod over Glenn Phillips, who is more of a batting all-rounder.

Squad News

© Imago / AAP

Gay will open alongside Ben Duckett, who has bounced back well from a poor Ashes by scoring 503 runs at an average of 83.83 for Nottinghamshire in the County Championship, while Bethell should be able to bat at No.3 despite suffering a finger injury at the IPL earlier this month.

Smith is likely to move above Stokes and bat at No.6, while Root and Harry Brook will also feature in the middle order.

Robinson is expected to open the bowling after earning a recall, with Gus Atkinson and Josh Tongue also likely to get the nod ahead of Sonny Baker and Matthew Fisher.

Jofra Archer is absent for the first Test as England look to manage his workload given the quick's injury history and involvement at the IPL, while Brydon Carse is out with a hand injury.

The biggest question mark for England heading into the first Test is which spinner they will go with, having named both Shoaib Bashir and Rehan Ahmed in the squad.

Offspinner Bashir has 68 Test wickets at an average of 39 and has made a decent start to life at Derbyshire in the County Championship this season, picking up 15 wickets at 37.60, while legspinner Ahmed is viewed as more of an allrounder in a similar mould to Moeen Ali.

Ahmed famously became the youngest debutant in Test history to take five wickets in an innings when he picked up 5-48 against Pakistan at 18 years and 128 days old in December 2022, but he has since developed into a top-order batter for Leicestershire and scored five County Championship centuries last year while averaging 50.66.

Ahmed also batted a No.4 for the England Lions last week against South Africa, making scores of four and 44 and picking up 1-34 from his 5.2 overs.

New Zealand are likely to stick with the same top six that played against Ireland, with captain Tom Latham set to open with Devon Conway and former skipper Kane Williamson set to slot in at No.3.

Ravindra, Daryl Mitchell and Blundell will round out the middle order, while either Phillips or Santner will replace Dean Foxcroft at No.7.

Seamers Matt Henry, Kyle Jamieson and Will O'Rourke are likely to come into the side after the trio missed the Ireland game to focus on preparing for the England series.

Smith, Tickner and Zak Foulkes are all competing for the final spot in the side and Smith may get the nod after picking up match figures of 8-93 against Ireland.

England squad:

Ben Stokes (captain), Rehan Ahmed, Gus Atkinson, Sonny Baker, Shoaib Bashir, Jacob Bethell, Harry Brook, Ben Duckett, Matthew Fisher, Emilio Gay, James Rew (wk), Ollie Robinson, Joe Root, Jamie Smith (wk), Josh Tongue

New Zealand squad:

Tom Latham (c), Tom Blundell (wk), Devon Conway, Zak Foulkes, Matt Henry, Kyle Jamieson, Daryl Mitchell, Henry Nicholls, Will O'Rourke, Glenn Phillips, Rachin Ravindra, Mitchell Santner, Nathan Smith, Blair Tickner, Kane Williamson, Will Young

When will the first England vs New Zealand Test start?

The match is scheduled to get underway at 11:00am local time on Thursday morning.

Lord's pitch update

Lord's is set to become the first cricket ground to host 150 Test matches when England face New Zealand this week.

The ground is well-known for having a slope that causes a drop of around 2.5 metres from one side of the field to the other and bowlers are able to use the unique feature to their advantage, with legendary seamer Glenn McGrath explaining: “This ground is tailor‑made for my style of bowling. Some balls hold the line going up the slope, others hit the wicket and come back down. Batsmen didn’t really know which one it’s going to be as long as I got the length right.”

Batting has proved tricky at Lord's in recent years, with just one score of 400+ made in 15 Test innings since the start of 2024.

Spin could also play a key role in the game due to the recent heatwave which will have baked the pitch and could help the spinners extract more turn and bounce as the match wears on.

We say: England to win

England have an excellent recent record at Lord's against New Zealand and, put simply, they are almost in a must-win situation following the winter's Ashes debacle.

New Zealand will prove a tough test, particularly given their impressive seam attack, but England should have enough to get the win.