The playoff fate of the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins could very well be determined on Sunday when both teams square off at Gillette Stadium.
New England are 7-8, one game behind Miami, who are clinging to the final postseason berth in the AFC despite losing four consecutive games.
Match preview
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On Christmas Eve, the Patriots dug themselves a hole yet again, going behind at the half for a third consecutive encounter, but on this occasion, the deficit was too much to overcome as they wound up falling 22-18 to the Cincinnati Bengals.
Second quarters have been a trouble spot for this team of late, with the Pats conceding 10 or more points in that portion of their last four games, having been outscored by a total of 24-3 versus the Las Vegas Raiders and Bengals, respectively.
In many respects, the Patriots have themselves to blame for their previous two losses, as they have not been able to take care of the football offensively.
First, there was a disastrous lateral that cost them a chance to win against the Raiders, and last weekend they fumbled in the final minute ending what might have been a game-winning touchdown.
Their defence has brought them back in several encounters lately, with an interception in three consecutive games, including a couple versus the number two passer in the NFL, Joe Burrow.
Bill Belichick's secondary will face a stiff challenge on Sunday against two of the quickest and most dangerous receivers in the league, though New England have some impressive numbers on that side of the ball, allowing a passer rating of 82.6 this season, the sixth-lowest in the NFL, and they are tied for second regarding interceptions (16).
As a team, they have the second-most sacks in the NFL (50), while offensively, they moved the ball much better through the air versus Cincy, throwing for over 200 yards for the second time in their previous three outings.
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Turnovers have been a saving grace for the Patriots, but they have hurt the Dolphins in recent weeks, with the Finns tossing three picks and losing a fumble on Christmas Day at home to the Green Bay Packers.
Mike McDaniel's crew have not had trouble making big plays throughout the campaign, ranked second in the league for passing (274.9).
The other side to that equation is that Miami have not defended the pass well all season, coming in with the fourth-worst secondary in the league, allowing a 96.8 rating along with at least one touchdown through the air in 10 successive contests.
They are 0-2 on the road against the AFC East this season, allowing a combined 72 points to the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills respectively, and are winless away from home against their division since November of last year.
The Dolphins are 1-2 in their last three regular-season affairs played in January since 2020, with their only triumph over that span coming at home to the New England Patriots last season (33-24), and both of their losses occurring on the road.
Offensively, they have thrown for over 200 yards in nine of their last 10 games while managing a touchdown pass in all 10 of those encounters.
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Team News
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Pats quarterback Mac Jones probably put together his finest performance of the season last week, and it still was not good enough, throwing for 240 yards with a 105.6 rating.
He connected with Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne for touchdowns, while Rhamondre Stevenson struggled on the ground, averaging 2.3 yards per carry and losing a fumble late in the fourth quarter.
Matthew Judon added to his sack total against Cincy with one, moving him up to 15.5 in 2022, second only to Nick Bosa, Josh Uche also had one in that game giving him 11.5 on the year, Ja'Whaun Bentley made eight tackles, four fewer than Marcus Jones, who also had a pick-six.
Damien Harris will be questionable with an issue in his thigh, and Joe Cardona missed their last outing due to an ankle sprain, concussion protocol might keep DeVante Parker on the sidelines while Jalen Mills is recovering from a groin strain.
The receiving tandem of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle put up some big numbers a week ago for the Dolphins, combining for 246 yards on nine catches with one touchdown, Raheem Mostert averaged over five yards a carry and Trent Sherfield had a pair of grabs for 25 yards.
Tua Tagovailoa threw three interceptions in their loss to the Packers and might be unavailable for this one because of concussion protocol, Kader Kohou had an interception in that defeat, Elandon Roberts and Eric Rowe each had a sack, while Jevon Holland led them in tackles with seven.
If Tua is not cleared to play, it will be up to Teddy Bridgewater to lead the Miami offence, which might not have a 100% healthy Durham Smythe as he is dealing with a quad strain.
Eric Fisher and River Cracraft are recovering from sore calves, while Terron Armstead might be a question mark because of a toe/pectoral and knee injury.
Head To Head
These teams last met in the regular season opener when Jason Sanders booted two field goals, Melvin Ingram returned a fumble for a touchdown, and the Dolphins improved their overall record against the Patriots to 60-54, winning 20-7.
That was the fourth successive triumph for the Finns over New England, and they won the last meeting between these teams in Greater Boston back in 2021 on a day where Tua ran for a score, and hit Jaylen Waddle for one as Miami narrowly won 17-16.
The last time these teams played in an all-or-nothing game was in the 1997 AFC Wild Card Round at Foxborough, as Drew Bledsoe hit Troy Brown for a 24-yard score in the opening quarter, and Todd Collins had a pick-six in quarter number two, helping the Pats win 17-13.
New England last defeated the Dolphins in 2020 when Cam Newton was their quarterback and ran for two touchdowns, with Sony Michel punching in a rushing score to win 21-11 at Gillette Stadium.
We say: New England Patriots 24-21 Miami Dolphins
Something just seem to be off in South Beach right now, and given the uncertain status of Tua and their current slump, we expect whoever is behind centre will find it difficult finding much accuracy against a pass rush as solid as New England's.
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Joel Lefevre
