The New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts face off in their AFC divisional round playoff clash on Saturday at Gillette Stadium.
The Patriots are looking to reach their conference title game for the third season in a row, while the Colts are eyeing their first appearance since the 2009 campaign.
Chuck Pagano's side pulled off a miraculous comeback win to reach the divisional round as they came behind from a 28-point deficit to beat the Kansas City Chiefs last week at Lucas Oil Stadium.
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Despite throwing three interceptions, quarterback Andrew Luck was outstanding leading his side back into contention for the Super Bowl with four touchdown passes and one quick-thinking score himself, gathering a Donald Brown fumble on the goalline to get into the endzone.
Indianapolis will need Luck to be at his best once again to beat the Patriots in New England as injuries have hit them hard over the campaign, and that was added to this week as defenders Fili Moala and Greg Toler became the latest players to go on their injured reserve list.
Pagano's side's defense was torn apart by the Chiefs offense as the usually cautious Alex Smith threw for nearly 400 yards and four touchdowns in guiding his side to 44 points. If they make they allow Tom Brady to do the same this will be their last game of the season.
Luck has proved this season if his defense can keep him in the game he is more than capable of winning the match on his own, and that has to be the case on Saturday as the odds are already stacked against him going against a Bill Belichick-coached side.
The Colts have beaten arguably the three best teams in the NFL this season with victories over the Seattle Seahawks, the San Francisco 49ers and the Denver Broncos, so they are more than capable of beating the Patriots.
However, that will require a huge effort on defense from defensive end Robert Mathis to make up for the holes in his side. He has 19.5 sacks on the season and had a crucial strip sack of Smith last week to turn the tide in their clash with the Chiefs.
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The 32-year-old will need to get constant pressure on Brady to disrupt the Patriots' passing game, which without key weapon Rob Gronkowski is still more than capable of putting enough points on the board, to put the game out of the reach of the Colts.
New England's running game will also have to be limited, as Stevan Ridley and LeGarrette Blount have both run for over 700 yards this season, with Blount in particular impressing in the last few weeks, where he ran for 189 yards against the Buffalo Bills last time out.
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If Belichick's side are able to control the clock and the line of scrimmage it will be a long evening for the Colts, so their defensive line of Cory Redding, Ricky Jean-Francois and Aubrayo Franklin have to win the battle to prevent those backs from handing the advantage to the Patriots.
Should Pagano's defense hold up Brady and his rushing attack they will give Luck a chance to win the game where he will battle the best secondary left in the AFC, that includes All-Pro players Aqib Talib and Devin McCourty.
Without the injured Reggie Wayne, TY Hilton has become his go-to receiver and he tortured the Chiefs with a 13-catch, 224-yard and two-touchdown performance to hand his side victory in the wildcard round.
He is unlikely to have that sort of performance in New England, but he can affect the game by drawing coverage away from other receivers.
Should that happen, it will be up to tight end Coby Fleener, Griff Whalen and Da'Rick Rogers to make plays, as if it's all on Luck and Hilton it will be too much for them to handle, while backs Brown and Trent Richardson have to play their part against a depleted front seven of the Patriots.
The game will be decided on which side can make the most plays. If the Patriots shut down Hilton and his teammates don't come ready to play, the Patriots can ready themselves for another AFC Championship showdown. If they do, then game on!
Simon Sinclair
