Primeira Liga Gameweek 27
Braga
Mar 29, 2025 8.30pm
2
1
HT : 3 0
FT Estadio Municipal de Braga
Arouca
  • Gabri Martinez 22' goal
  • Ricardo Horta 39' goal
  • Uros Racic 44' goal
  • Uros Racic 61' yellowcard
  • Rodrigo Zalazar 64' yellowcard
  • goal Alfonso Trezza 68'
  • yellowcard Taichi Fukui 77'
  • yellowcard Jose Fontan 87'

Braga vs Arouca - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Braga

All competitions
Last game
Mar 15, 2025 3.30pm
Farense 0 - 1 Braga
Goals scored
55
Top scorer
Ricardo Horta

Arouca

All competitions
Last game
Mar 16, 2025 3.30pm
Arouca 1 - 1 Estoril
Goals scored
35
Top scorer
Alfonso Trezza

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 61.62%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 18.05%.

The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.42%) and 1-0 (8.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.4%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-2 (4.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Braga in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Braga.

Result

Braga 61.62% ▼ (-0.50)
Draw 20.33% ▲ (+0.20)
Arouca 18.05% ▲ (+0.32)

Both Teams to Score: 

57.21% ▼ (-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5 61.24% ▼ (-0.36)
Under 2.5 38.76% ▲ (+0.36)
Over 3.5 38.93% ▼ (-0.38)
Under 3.5 61.07% ▲ (+0.39)
Over 4.5 21.28% ▼ (-0.31)
Under 4.5 78.71% ▲ (+0.31)

Braga Goals

Over 0.5 87.88% ▼ (-0.25)
Under 0.5 12.12% ▲ (+0.25)
Over 1.5 62.31% ▼ (-0.53)
Under 1.5 37.69% ▲ (+0.53)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5 65.1% ▲ (+0.13)
Under 0.5 34.9% ▼ (-0.13)
Over 1.5 28.36% ▲ (+0.14)
Under 1.5 71.64% ▼ (-0.14)

Score analysis

Braga 61.62%
Draw 20.33%
Arouca 18.05%
Braga
2-1 @ 9.92% ▲ (+0.01)
2-0 @ 9.42% ▼ (-0.03)
1-0 @ 8.93% ▲ (+0.07)
3-1 @ 6.98% ▼ (-0.07)
3-0 @ 6.63% ▼ (-0.09)
4-1 @ 3.68% ▼ (-0.07)
3-2 @ 3.67% ▼ (-0.02)
4-0 @ 3.5% ▼ (-0.08)
4-2 @ 1.94% ▼ (-0.04)
5-1 @ 1.55% ▼ (-0.05)
5-0 @ 1.48% ▼ (-0.05)
Other @ 3.95%
Total : 61.62%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.4% ▲ (+0.11)
2-2 @ 5.22% ▲ (+0.03)
0-0 @ 4.23% ▲ (+0.08)
3-3 @ 1.29% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 20.33%
Arouca
1-2 @ 4.95% ▲ (+0.07)
0-1 @ 4.45% ▲ (+0.09)
0-2 @ 2.34% ▲ (+0.06)
2-3 @ 1.83% ▲ (+0.02)
1-3 @ 1.74% ▲ (+0.04)
Other @ 2.74%
Total : 18.05%

Head to Head

Primeira Liga Gameweek 10
Arouca
Nov 3, 2024 6.00pm
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT Estadio Municipal de Arouca
Braga
  • Alfonso Trezza 6' yellowcard
  • Jose Fontan 9' yellowcard
  • David Simao 24' yellowcard
  • Morlaye Sylla 90' goal
  • goal Bruma 16'
  • yellowcard Rodrigo Zalazar 28'
  • goal Amine El Ouazzani 55'
  • yellowcard Vitor Carvalho 70'
Primeira Liga Gameweek 28
Braga
Apr 6, 2024 6.00pm
0
3
HT : 0 2
FT Estadio Municipal de Braga
Arouca
  • Joao Moutinho 45'+4' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Francisco Montero 9'
  • goal Serdar Saatci 29' (OG)
  • goal Rafa Mujica 34'
  • yellowcard David Simao 46'
  • yellowcard Pedro Santos 62'
  • goal Rafa Mujica 89'
Primeira Liga Gameweek 11
Arouca
Nov 12, 2023 6.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT Estadio Municipal de Arouca
Braga
  • David Simao 40' yellowcard
  • Pedro Santos 88' yellowcard
  • goal Alvaro Djalo 36'
  • yellowcard Bruma 46'
  • yellowcard Joao Moutinho 45'+3'
  • yellowcard Matheus Magalhaes 85'
  • yellowcard Abel Ruiz 90'+3'
Primeira Liga Gameweek 21
Braga
Feb 19, 2023 6.00pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estádio Municipal de Braga
Arouca
  • Abel Ruiz 1' goal
  • Simon Banza 81' goal
Primeira Liga Gameweek 4
Arouca
Aug 28, 2022 6.00pm
0
6
HT : 0 4
FT Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Braga
  • Rafael Fernandes 6' yellowcard
  • David Simao 38' yellowcard
  • Bogdan Milovanov 39' yellowcard
  • goal Simon Banza 1'
  • goal Ricardo Horta 4'
  • yellowcard Iuri Medeiros 19'
  • yellowcard Ali Elmusrati 21'
  • goal Ricardo Horta 40'
  • goal Vitor Oliveira 44'
  • yellowcard Diego Lainez 48'
  • goal Andre Castro 67'
  • goal Diego Lainez 76'
Primeira Liga Gameweek 33
Braga
May 8, 2022 6.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Arouca
  • Ricardo Horta 87' goal
  • yellowcard Arsenio Nunes 84'

Form Data

Farense 0 - 1 Braga
Braga 1 - 0 Porto
Rio Ave 2 - 1 Braga
Benfica 1 - 0 Braga
Braga 1 - 0 Nacional
Guimaraes 0 - 0 Braga
Arouca 1 - 1 Estoril
AVS 0 - 1 Arouca
Arouca 0 - 2 Porto
Arouca 2 - 2 Farense
Sporting Lisbon 2 - 2 Arouca
Arouca 1 - 1 Rio Ave