Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 56.04%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 21.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.41%) and 0-2 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.38%), while for a Nottingham Forest win it was 2-1 (5.73%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.