Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 69.23%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for PEC Zwolle had a probability of 12.54%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.29%) and 1-2 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.63%), while for a PEC Zwolle win it was 1-0 (3.84%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.