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Why Everton are best placed to finish in fourth place in Premier League table

Everton weakened towards the end of the last Premier League campaign, but they should be best placed to finish in fourth position during the next campaign.

When Farhad Moshiri became part owner of Everton in February 2016, it led to an immediate increase in expectations in the stands at Goodison Park after a period which had seen them drop down into the bottom half of the Premier League table. It was inevitable that Roberto Martinez would leave the club, but there was uncertainty over his replacement until Ronald Koeman opted to make the switch from Southampton. Many criticised the Dutchman for leaving a side which he had guided to Europa League qualification for the second successive campaign for a club which had been on the decline over the previous 24 months, but his management style - combined with Moshiri's millions - has left the Toffees in a position where they are not only perfectly positioned to launch an assault on fourth place in the top-flight table, but where they can now be on equal terms with a number of teams currently classed above them.

Online bookmakers like Sportingbet have Everton as the 9/1 outsiders to finish in fourth position for the first time in 2005 - with each of last season's top six all priced at no higher than evens - but in reality, the gulf in class is not that wide apart. Those who disagree with that belief will point to Everton losing three of their final four games of the most recent campaign and failing to win away from home since January 21 during a period where they could not claim to be distracted by a cup competition, but that has not stopped the Everton faithful from remaining increasingly optimistic that this is their time to mount a revolution which has taken place at many of their rivals over the past 15 years.

For some reason Ronald Koeman applauds after the Premier League game between Liverpool and Everton on April 1, 2017© SilverHub

This is in spite of the fact that their two star men - Romelu Lukaku and Ross Barkley - look likely to leave the club before the end of August. In Lukaku's case, that should be the end of July because given the way which Koeman conducts his business, he will not entertain losing a 25-goal striker within days of the start of the new Premier League season. Naturally, everyone associated with Everton wants the Belgian international to stay but at best, he only has a year remaining on Merseyside. Not even a fourth-place finish would tempt him into staying at Everton because there is still a considerable way to go until they can be regarded as title contenders, so the sale of the 24-year-old - which would be for a reported £80m - can only benefit Everton in the long term. Sandro Ramirez is already on his way from Malaga - should Real Madrid not back up any alleged interest - and Celtic's Moussa Dembele could make his way south of the border for around £40m. That would be two of European football's hottest prospects on the books with approximately another £35m to spend.

The signing of Jordan Pickford from Sunderland has already improved the goalkeeping department and Davy Klaassen - on current form - is an ideal replacement for Barkley should he leave, so the aim for Koeman is that he improves the squad to contend with the possibility of at least a dozen fixtures in the Europa League. If Michael Keane, Cuco Martina, Andre Gray and another left-back to compete with Leighton Baines all arrive, as they are expected to do, Everton will possess one of the strongest setups in the top flight and they will have motivation over the expectation which could hinder some of the clubs above them.

Mauricio Pochettino shouts during the Premier League game between Tottenham Hotspur and Southampton on March 19, 2017© SilverHub

It cannot be denied that Tottenham Hotspur have been exceptional over the past two years. It has taken fairytale and record-breaking seasons from Leicester City and Chelsea respectively to deny them their first Premier League title, but you also have to take into consideration that their own club highs have come from other clubs enduring some of their most turbulent seasons in recent memory. Chelsea's title defence during the 2015-16 campaign was non-existent, Manchester United are yet to recover from the retirement of Sir Alex Ferguson, Manchester City have have to contend with the transition from Manuel Pellegrini to Pep Guardiola, while Arsenal have fallen further away from the rest of the pack because of Arsene Wenger's persistence with a transfer policy which was never going to succeed in the modern-day climate. However, each club are expected to be considerably stronger during the upcoming campaign and the big question will be how do Spurs react when their own expectation levels are at an all-time high?

Going back to Wenger's transfer policy at the Emirates Stadium, he has got supporters on tenterhooks with offers for AS Monaco's wonderkid Kylian Mbappe and Lyon's goal machine Alexandre Lacazette. However, while the pursuit of Lacazette is realistic and justified, the chase for in-demand Mbappe is just side-tracking Wenger from more important issues in North London. They remain flimsy and inconsistent in the centre of the park and they need to identify a goalkeeper to compete with 35-year-old Petr Cech. Arsenal will always score goals, but the idea of signing Mbappe is fantasy. Not only does he reportedly need persuading to move to England over Spain, Wenger needs to convince him to drop out of the Champions League - potentially for more than one year - at a time when Real Madrid or other Premier League clubs will provide a more attractive option. It is a waste of time and instead, Arsenal face falling behind when a goalkeeper and one, maybe two, defensive midfielders should be at the top of Wenger's shopping list.

Jurgen Klopp argues with Ronald Koeman during the Premier League game between Liverpool and Everton on April 1, 2017© SilverHub

That leaves Everton's great rivals Liverpool, who have achieved a place in the Champions League qualifying rounds. Gaining a spot at European football's top table is what every Liverpool supporter will want, but it will only prove detrimental for their league form. There's nothing like a European night at Anfield and Jurgen Klopp will be obliged to play his strongest team, but that will lead to rotation on the domestic front. Before the end of 2017, there is the possibility of Liverpool facing fixtures with Arsenal, Newcastle United, Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea and Everton in the days after an important Champions League match, and given Klopp's high-intensity style of play, he will not be able to select his best team in each game. Points will likely be dropped at a time when Everton and Koeman can potentially make five of six changes in the Europa League and still get their required result.

The betting price of 80/1 which is being offered for Everton to win the Premier League title will probably be left untouched by most punters, but there is value to be had for what they can achieve this season. When considering a number of factors, they can be deemed on a level playing field with the likes of Liverpool and Arsenal and then it is left to Spurs to try to show that they are the real deal when Chelsea, Manchester City and Manchester United will all possess stronger first XIs and squads than them next season. Spurs have only faced pressure when in pursuit of other clubs, but what happens if they do not match two top-three finishes in a row and end up being chased by three other teams?

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A very alarmed Moussa Dembele in action for Celtic in September 2016
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Arsenal34245582265677
2Manchester CityMan City33237380324876
3Liverpool34228475344174
4Aston Villa34206871502166
5Tottenham HotspurSpurs32186865491660
6Manchester UnitedMan Utd33165125150153
7Newcastle UnitedNewcastle331551369541550
8West Ham UnitedWest Ham34139125463-948
9Chelsea32138116157447
10Bournemouth34129134960-1145
11Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton331111115254-244
12Wolverhampton WanderersWolves34127154654-843
13Fulham34126165054-442
14Crystal Palace34109154456-1239
15Brentford3498175259-735
16Everton34118153648-1233
17Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest3479184260-1826
18Luton TownLuton3467214775-2825
19Burnley3458213769-3223
20Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd3437243392-5916


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