Three weeks after a narrow 22-17 victory against their AFC East rivals, the New England Patriots and New York Jets will square off at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough on Sunday.
The Pats are bottom of the division with a record of 5-4, but just one game behind the second-place Jets, who trail the Miami Dolphins by a single game.
Match preview
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There are countless tales to tell in this divisional rivalry, one which includes a story of betrayal when current New England head coach Bill Belichick resigned after one day on the job as the Jets boss in 1999, instead choosing to go to Greater Boston with the Pats giving up a first-round pick in the deal.
Then there was the infamous spygate incident where the Jets accused Belichick of authorising his staff to videotape their defensive signals from an on-field location, as the Pats head coach was fined $500,000 as a result.
Fast-forward to today, and we discover that the six-time Super Bowl championship-winning coach has owned the Jets historically, sweeping their season series against them from 2016 up until now.
New England have struggled at the quarterbacking position this season, but their defensive line has done the job, second in the NFL regarding sacks (32).
They have done well to contain opposing running backs in 2022, allowing 4.1 yards per carry on the ground, though they are struggling to stop mobile QBs, conceding an average of 6.1 yards per carry against them.
Since losing their opening game against Miami (20-7), the Patriots have had at least one interception in every encounter, including in New York against these same Jets at the end of October when they had three and held the opposition to just 51 yards on the ground.
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Just like their energetic head coach Robert Saleh, the Jets have been in your face and difficult to contain defensively all year, ranked fifth in the NFL.
They have allowed 20 points or fewer in three of their last four contests, keeping the Super Bowl favourite Buffalo Bills in check in their previous outing, winning 20-17.
Their secondary rarely allow receivers to get open, with the Jets conceding only 6.3 yards per attempt through the air and a 74.3 passer rating, good for third and second, respectively in the NFL.
These Jets are not easy to run against either, allowing an average of 4.0 yards per carry in 2022, with the Dolphins' Raheem Mostert being the only running back this season to rush for over 100 yards versus New York.
Offensively, the Jets had a good mixture of run and pass attempts against the Bills, with 34 rushing and 25 passing plays, keeping that defensive unit guessing all game long.
New York come into this encounter having won two of their three matchups this season versus divisional rivals after losing 12 straight regular-season affairs against AFC East opponents heading into this campaign.
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Team News
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Patriots linebacker Matthew Judon leads the league with 11.5 sacks on the season, Jonathan Jones had an interception in their 26-3 victory over the Indianapolis Colts, while Mack Wilson has held opposing QBs to a 59.4 rating in 2022 with a pair of picks and has not been beaten for a touchdown all year.
Rhamondre Stevenson is not lighting the league on fire with his running, but he has put up a solid 4.8 yards per carry average this year, Mac Jones was 20/30 two weeks ago versus Indy for 147 yards and a TD pass to Stevenson, Jakobi Meyers had their only touchdown grab against the Jets at the end of October, while former New York kicker Nick Folk went 5/5 on field goals in that outing, with his longest being a 52-yarder.
DeMarcus Mitchell missed the Patriots' practice on Wednesday due to an illness, Josh Uche has a sore hamstring, Kyle Dugger has an ankle sprain and DeVante Parker continues to recover from a knee injury.
Jets pivot Zach Wilson, who tossed three interceptions in the loss to the Patriots, was 18/25 for 154 yards, a TD and a rating of 101.1 against Buffalo, Garrett Wilson had eight catches in that victory for 92 yards, while James Robinson had his first touchdown catch as a Jet, as he and Michael Carter combined for 124 yards on the ground on 25 carries.
CJ Mosley is in the top five regarding tackles this season with 88, Sauce Gardner and Jordan Whitehead each had a pick on Josh Allen and the Bills, while former Patriot Braxton Berrios averaged 20 return yards in that victory.
Breece Hall is out for the season after tearing his meniscus and ACL in a Week Seven victory over the Broncos (16-9), while Duane Brown has a sore shoulder.
Sheldon Rankins is dealing with an elbow problem, and Corey Davis saw limited practice time due to his knee injury.
Head To Head
New England have won the last 13 contests versus the Jets, including that squeaker at the end of last month.
The last time these teams faced off at Foxborough, Damien Harris and JJ Taylor each ran for a pair of touchdowns, while Hunter Henry also caught a pass from Mac Jones as the Pats dominated New York, winning 54-13.
New York last beat New England in 2015 when former QB Ryan Fitzpatrick hit Eric Decker for a six-yard TD catch to win 26-20 in overtime as Brandon Marshall had a pair of touchdown grabs.
We say: New England Patriots 22-20 New York Jets
Belichick is 53-5 as the Patriots coach in home games against opposing quarterbacks in their rookie or sophomore seasons.
Wilson plays well when he has time to throw in the pocket, but we expect he will face plenty of pressure and try to overcompensate for his poor performance versus New England earlier this year and as a result might gift the home team another victory.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
