A pair of former long-time coaching colleagues will square off on Sunday as the Las Vegas Raiders welcome the New England Patriots to Allegiant Stadium.
Vegas head coach Josh McDaniels won six Super Bowls under current Pats boss Bill Belichick, primarily as an offensive coordinator or assistant.
Match preview
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The Raiders suffered a significant setback in their playoff quest last week as they were stunned 17-16 in a dramatic last-minute drive put together by Baker Mayfield and the Los Angeles Rams.
That ended a three-game winning streak and put them two games behind New England in the AFC playoff race with only four contests remaining.
Not only did they lose the turnover battle for a second successive week, but Vegas also struggled in pass coverage, allowing Mayfield a 91.4 rating, while the Raiders have converted less than 50% of their third downs in back-to-back contests.
Believe it or not that is better than what we have seen from them throughout most of 2022, as Las Vegas have the worst pass defence in the NFL, allowing a 103.4 rating.
Their pass rush has been their saving grace defensively, with three or more sacks in each of their previous four contests.
Three of the final four regular season encounters for the Raiders will be against teams from the AFC, with Las Vegas winning two of their three home contests in 2022 versus that conference.
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New England got themselves back above the playoff line in the AFC thanks to the outstanding play of the defensive line, sacking Cardinals quarterback Colt McCoy six times, recovering a fumble for a touchdown and allowing fewer than five yards per play (4.7).
No doubt Belichick has some outstanding D-lineman to call upon, but all season long, they have been excellent regarding pass coverage, allowing an 80.5 rating this year, the sixth-lowest in the NFL, while conceding the second-lowest completion percentage in the league as well (60.0%).
The Pats are one of a handful of teams who have conceded a rushing average of fewer than five yards per carry to their opponents this year, but they had a hard time containing Arizona's James Conner on Monday, allowing him to rush for 85 yards and a score, and an average of 5.7 yards per carry for the game.
Perhaps due to some injuries at the running back position, they have been a pass-heavy offence in recent weeks, throwing the ball 35 times or more in three consecutive encounters, though only two of those plays went for over 20 yards on Monday.
Their quick pass approach seems to have improved their ability to move the ball, with the Pats' offensive line conceding just a single quarterback sack in two straight encounters.
After losing their opening game of the season 20-7 at the Miami Dolphins, the Patriots have won three straight road contests versus AFC teams, conceding fewer than 20 points in victories over the Pittsburgh Steelers (17-14), Cleveland Browns (38-15) and New York Jets (22-17).
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Team News
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Raiders QB Derek Carr has tossed five interceptions in his last three games, including two in the loss to the Rams last week, Davante Adams sits third in the NFL in receiving yards but only had three catches on seven targets for 71 yards last Thursday, while the league's leading rusher, Josh Jacobs, ran for under 100 yards for the first time since mid-November.
Maxx Crosby has at least one sack in four of his last five outings, currently with 11.5 in 2022, Nate Hobbs had eight tackles to lead the way for them last Thursday and Denzel Perryman made four tackles in that defeat.
Malcolm Koonce and Rock Ya-Sin are dealing with knee issues, Dylan Perham has a hip flexor strain, while Jermaine Eluemunor could miss this game with an oblique/wrist injury.
Pierre Strong filled in nicely at the running back position for New England in their previous encounter with five carries for 70 yards as he and Kevin Harris both ran for a score, Mac Jones threw for 235 yards with an interception and a low rating of 75.3 and Hunter Henry was their leading pass catcher with three grabs for 70 yards.
Matthew Judon added to his sack total with 1.5 against the Cards, moving him up to 14.5 this year, the second most in the NFL behind Nick Bosa, Marcus Jones had an interception, Kyle Dugger made seven tackles and Daniel Ekuale picked up his first sack of the season.
Running back Rhamondre Stevenson left that game with a sprained ankle and has not practised all week, Isaiah Wynn could be out because of a problem with his foot, and DeVante Parker might also be sidelined due to concussion protocol.
Head To Head
Overall the Pats hold a 20-15 edge all-time versus the Raiders, winning the last six meetings against them since 2005, with their previous encounter in 2020 ending in a 36-20 triumph for New England as Rex Burkhead ran for two touchdowns and caught one from Cam Newton, while Nick Folk booted three field goals.
Probably the most famous encounter, or infamous game between the two, happened in the 2001 AFC Divisional Round in a contest called the Tuck Rule Game.
In the snowy conditions in Greater Boston, former Pats QB Tom Brady looked to have fumbled late in the fourth quarter but cleverly tucked the ball into his body as the officials reviewed it and deemed it was an incomplete pass.
What resulted was a 45-yard game-tying field goal for Adam Vinatieri, while he went on to boot the winner from 23 yards out in overtime, as New England advanced with a 16-13 triumph over Oakland, eventually capturing their first Super Bowl that season.
The last time the Raiders beat the Pats was the next game after that heartbreaker when Zack Crockett ran for a pair of touchdowns, and Sebastian Janikowski kicked two field goals as Oakland came away with a 27-20 victory.
We say: Las Vegas Raiders 20-22 New England Patriots
It may not be the best offence that Belichick has ever had, but they have simplified the playbook for Mac Jones, and he in-turn has minimised his bad throws.
On the opposite side, you never know what you are going to get from Derek Carr, but if he is hurried, which could be the case against that stingy Pats defensive line, we anticipate he will make some poor decisions and give the visitors some short field to work with offensively.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
