With heavy hearts, the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots will square off at Highmark Stadium on Sunday in a game with huge playoff implications for both teams.
For the Patriots, the formula is simple as a victory will earn them a playoff berth, while a win for Buffalo could help them clinch a first-round bye.
Match preview
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Having gone through such an emotional and traumatic experience in their Monday Night Football encounter against the Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo need to find a way to focus on football, though you would forgive them if that was the furthest thing from their minds this week.
The collapse of their free safety Damar Hamlin and the on-field CPR given to him was difficult to watch, and one can only imagine the psychological impact that may have on those players.
Hamlin is being treated in hospital following his cardiac arrest, and amid all of the concerns surrounding his health, Sunday is still a big game for Sean McDermott and his crew, who can claim home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win and a loss by the Kansas City Chiefs.
Buffalo have won six consecutive outings and have looked good on the offensive side of the ball lately, putting up over 400 yards in back-to-back encounters.
They have been highly productive with the ball averaging the fourth-most yards per game (381.4), but their defence also deserves plenty of credit, allowing an 82.6 rating through the air along with only 6.6 yards per carry, the fifth-best mark in the NFL this season.
The Bills have allowed 4.3 yards per carry to running backs over this campaign, but they have been at their best defensively in the red zone, allowing the fewest points in that area of the field, while also ranked ninth on third downs and allowing the second-fewest total points per game.
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Bill Belichick can thank his defence for putting the Patriots back in the pole position to qualify for the postseason, as they had two interceptions versus the Miami Dolphins in a 23-21 victory.
It is rare to see the likes of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill be contained like they were last week, though the Pats secondary have been impressive for a good portion of the campaign, allowing the fourth-lowest passing rating in the NFL this season (82.3), while only conceding 6.7 yards per attempt, tied for the seventh-lowest average in the league.
Those impressive performances have taken a lot of pressure off their offensive unit, as the Patriots have not tossed an interception in three straight games and have thrown for multiple touchdowns in back-to-back outings.
On the ground, it has been tough sledding for them lately, posting fewer than 100 yards rushing in their last two games while only averaging 4.4 yards per play against Miami.
New England love to bring pressure, and you can expect them to put a lot of heat on a Bills team that have taken the ninth-most sacks in the league (31) while the Pats have made 52 this season, the second most in the NFL.
Even though they have just one win in their last three away games, the Patriots have kept most of their road games close, winning four times, while four of their five losses were by a single score.
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Team News
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Josh Allen has thrown for six touchdown passes in his last two encounters, finding Dawson Knox and Gabe Davis in the end zone on Christmas Eve, while he, James Cook and Devin Singletary all had TD runs.
Stefon Diggs had just two catches in their 35-13 victory over the Chicago Bears, as the fifth-leading receiver in the NFL has not found the end zone in his last three games, Jaquan Johnson had an interception two weeks ago, AJ Epenesa and Ed Oliver each had a sack, while Tremaine Edmunds made five tackles.
Besides Hamlin, the Bills could also be missing Jordan Phillips with a shoulder strain, while Matt Milano, Jordan Poyer and Tyrel Dodson all have knee issues and Taron Johnson was limited at practice this week due to a concussion.
Pats QB Mac Jones went 20/33 for 204 yards, hitting Jakobi Meyers and Tyquan Thornton for touchdowns last Sunday, Rhamondre Stevenson averaged 5.2 yards rushing and Hunter Henry made five catches for 52 yards.
Jonathan Jones and Kyle Dugger both had an interception in their previous outing, Carl Davis and Christian Barmore each produced one sack, while their leader in that department, Matthew Judon, failed to register one for the second time in his last three outings.
Jonnu Smith saw limited practice time this week as he is recovering from a concussion, Brenden Schooler has a hip flexor, Jalen Mills is dealing with a sore groin and Myles Bryant might not be available due to a shoulder injury.
Head To Head
The Bills have won the last three meetings against New England, claiming a 24-10 victory last month in a game where Diggs, Marcus Jones and Gabe Davis all had a touchdown catch.
Allen had five TD throws when the Bills hosted the Patriots in the AFC Wild Card Round last season, with Tommy Doyle and Emmanuel Sanders among those to catch an end zone pass from him last January.
Overall, New England have a 77-48-1 advantage versus the Bills, defeating them last in Week 13 of the 2021 campaign thanks to a 64-yard touchdown run from Damien Harris, along with a pair of field goals by Nick Folk.
We say: Buffalo Bills 27-17 New England Patriots
You can count on emotions being high in Buffalo this weekend, but we expect them to take plenty of motivation from their fallen teammate, who, by all reports, seems to be making improvements in a Cincinnati hospital.
Allen is among the best quarterbacks at scrambling when under pressure, and we believe he will be able to use his legs effectively and burn the Pats' defence on the ground.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
