Round three of the AFC East rivalry between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins will take place at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, with a spot in the Divisional Round at stake.
The Dolphins sneaked into the playoffs thanks to an 11-6 triumph last weekend versus the New York Jets, and the Bills helped them out by defeating the New England Patriots 35-23.
Match preview
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Playing in the postseason is already a significant motivation, but when you add to that the news that Bills safety Damar Hamlin has been released from hospital after suffering a cardiac arrest at the start of the year, Buffalo should be extra motivated this weekend.
Sean McDermott saw his team finish the regular season on a high by defeating the Pats in an emotionally charged game highlighted by a pair of kick return touchdowns from Nyheim Hines and his touching tribute to Hamlin when finding the end zone.
Buffalo have been a force offensively, putting up 30+ points in each of their final three regular-season affairs, averaging 397.6 yards per game over the campaign, the second-highest total in the NFL.
While they have some studs offensively, this is a formidable unit on the other side of the ball, allowing the sixth-fewest yards per game in 2022-23 (319.1), though they were average in the secondary, conceding a 91.2 rating to wide receivers.
Their great rushing attack has enabled them to throw opposing offences off balance, averaging the second-most yards-per-carry over the regular season (5.2), though they were middle of the pack versus running backs, allowing a 4.4-yard average to them, good for 16th in the league.
The Bills come into this contest on a four-game winning streak at Orchard Park and have not lost a home game against a divisional opponent since December 2021.
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We saw a different side of Miami that we are used to last week, but the Fins will not care as they are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
Last Sunday was the first time they failed to find the end zone all season, but thankfully they were facing an offence ranked 25th out of 32 teams, and the Dolphins allowed fewer than double digits in points for only the second time over this campaign.
Mike McDaniel has been able to count on a dependable receiving duo who have been probably the biggest reason that the Dolphins ranked fourth in the passing game during the regular season, averaging 265.4 yards per game.
They also had a solid campaign regarding pass defence, holding wide receivers to a mere 86.6 rating, the eighth-lowest mark in the NFL.
Containing tight ends, though, was another story, as they gave up the second-highest rating to that position in 2022-23 (125.6), though their victory last Sunday was just the second time all season that they did not allow a touchdown through the air, as the Jets were the only team they kept out of the end zone this season.
Miami like to bring the heat, with a pressure rating of 37.8% during the regular season, the second-highest total in the league, producing 40 sacks as a result (14th).
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Team News
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Josh Allen finished the regular season with three touchdown passes and an interception in the Bills' victory against New England, Stefon Diggs was fifth in receiving yards in 2022-23 (1,429), as he, Dawson Knox and John Brown each had a touchdown reception last week, James Cook averaged five yards per carry and Devin Singletary only carried the ball seven times for 29 yards.
Tre'Davious White, Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano each had an interception on Mac Jones last weekend, Gregory Rousseau registered their only sack, while Milano and Jordan Poyer led them in tackles with seven a piece.
Jordan Phillips has a sore shoulder, Isaiah McKenzie is questionable due to a hamstring strain, Rodger Saffold missed practice in midweek for unknown reasons and Cam Lewis seems to be recovered from his forearm injury.
Skylar Thompson will make his first career playoff start on Sunday, and the Dolphins' rookie quarterback went 20-31 for 152 yards last weekend, Tyreek Hill finished second in receiving this season with 1,710 yards through the air, as he and Jaylen Waddle each had over 100 receptions, while Raheem Mostert carried the ball 11 times versus the Jets for 71 yards.
Jeff Wilson averaged 4.7 yards per carry on the ground this season and had five rushing scores, Mike Gesicki made four catches for 46 yards against the Jets, Erik Ezukanma had his first reception of the campaign and Jevon Holland led them in tackles with five.
Tua Tagovailoa has been ruled out because of a concussion, Teddy Bridgewater is unlikely to see any action due to a dislocated finger, Cedrick Wilson continues to deal with an issue in his hip/groin and Brandon Shell might not be available with knee/ankle problems.
Head To Head
These teams have met twice this season, with the Dolphins winning 23-21 at home back in Week 3 when Chase Edmonds ran for a pair of scores, and Tua found River Cracraft for a touchdown in the second quarter.
On a snow-filled evening at Orchard Park in December, Buffalo won a back-and-forth contest versus the Fins 32-29, with Tyler Bass kicking the game-winning field goal on the final play.
It has been over two decades since these rivals faced off in a playoff encounter, when the Dolphins home venue was Pro Player Stadium.
On that date in January 1999, Abdul-Karim Al-Jabbar ran for a score, while Dan Marino hit Lamar Thomas for one in the fourth quarter, and Trace Armstrong forced a fumble on Doug Flutie with the Bills in the red zone late in the fourth quarter, preserving a 24-17 victory for Miami.
We say: Buffalo Bills 33-17 Miami Dolphins
Emotionally and on paper, the Bills have too much going for them at the moment, and even with a pair of outstanding receivers to count upon, we suspect it will be a difficult playoff debut for the Dolphins' rookie pivot.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
