Nearly three weeks after one of the most frightening television moments in NFL history, the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals will tussle on Sunday at Highmark Stadium for a place in the AFC Championship Game.
On January 2, these teams squared off in Cincy in a game that was cancelled after Bills safety Damar Hamlin suffered a cardiac arrest on the field, but fortunately, he has since been released from the hospital and is on the road to recovery.
Match preview
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The road back to the Divisional Round was a lot bumpier for Buffalo last week than many had expected, as they turned the ball over three times but narrowly pulled out a 34-31 victory over the Miami Dolphins.
That was only the second time all season that the Bills gave up over 30 points in a game, as the defence allowed the second-fewest points per game in 2022-23 (17.9) and were among the best at defending third downs, with the Dolphins going 4/16 against them last Sunday.
While they threw a pair of interceptions, the Buffalo passing attack was still a force last weekend, registering 316 yards through the air.
Defending the pass has been one of the many strong aspects of their game in 2022-23, as the Bills only allowed an 82.1 rating to quarterbacks over the regular season and 6.5 yards per attempt, the fourth and fifth-lowest totals in the NFL.
Sean McDermott's secondary will need to be at their best to slow down the Bengals, who have perhaps the deepest group of pass catchers in the league, though Buffalo have played the pass well all season, particularly tight ends, holding that position to a 67.6 rating, the lowest in the league.
While they have perhaps the most mobile quarterback in the NFL, the offensive line did not give their star behind centre much time to throw the ball last week, as the Bills took seven sacks versus Miami, two more than they had conceded in their three previous encounters combined.
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Turnovers nearly cost Buffalo last week, but for Cincinnati, that may have saved their season as a Tyler Huntley fumble on the goal-line late in the fourth quarter was recovered by Sam Hubbard and returned 98 yards for a touchdown.
Those were the decisive points which propelled the Bengals to victory, as the offence managed fewer than 300 yards for the second successive contest, well below its regular season average of 360.5.
Cincy are a pass-happy offence with a quarterback who likes to share the wealth and give his pass catchers plenty of targets, with five players registering multiple grabs last Sunday.
Buffalo may be the best at defending tight ends, but Cincinnati have done an excellent job at keeping them out of the end zone, allowing just three passing touchdowns versus that position all season.
An offensive line that had improved significantly during the regular season looked like the same group we saw during the 2021 campaign, as they allowed four sacks against the Ravens, along with eight quarterback hits.
Blocking was a problem for Zac Taylor's crew last week, and they have not been able to create many holes for their running game all season, rushing for only 51 yards last week, while they have not hit the century mark on the ground in five successive outings.
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Team News
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Despite tossing a pair of interceptions versus Miami, Bills QB Josh Allen remained unbeaten in the postseason at Orchard Park, with three touchdown passes, while Kaiir Elam and Dean Marlowe each had a pick, Tyler Bass connected on both of his field goals and Matt Milano led the way with eight tackles.
Dawson Knox has a touchdown catch in five straight games, as he, Cole Beasley and Gabe Davis all had one last weekend, Stefon Diggs caught seven balls for 114 yards, while Milano, Ed Oliver and Carlos Basham each registered at least one sack.
Jordan Phillips was limited at practice this week due to a sore shoulder, Jordan Poyer is doubtful because of an injured knee, DaQuan Jones has a calf strain and Dane Jackson remains a question mark because of a knee issue.
Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow threw for 209 yards and a score last week, with a rating of 99.6, slightly below his regular season average of 100.8, improving his postseason record to 4-1 all-time, while Ja'Marr Chase has a TD catch in back-to-back games, Tee Higgins was limited to just four catches versus the Ravens, as was Hayden Hurst, who lost a fumble.
Joe Mixon has been relatively ineffective on the ground, carrying the ball just 11 times for 39 yards last Sunday, with Burrow scoring their only rushing touchdown in that encounter, Jessie Bates had eight tackles, while Eli Apple struggled in the secondary, giving up a 147.9 rating through the air.
Offensive tackle Jonah Williams has been ruled out with a knee injury, while Joseph Ossai practised all week despite a shoulder issue.
Tre Flowers is expected to miss this encounter due to a hamstring strain, and Alex Cappa continues to recover from a sore ankle.
Head To Head
We will never know what would have happened when these teams met in January, but we do know that they are evenly matched, especially in the overall series where the Bills have a slight edge of 17-15.
Buffalo walked away with a 21-17 triumph the last time they welcomed the Bengals to Highmark Stadium, as Knox had a first-quarter touchdown catch, Stephen Hauschka booted a pair of field goals and Frank Gore ran for a score late in the fourth quarter.
The previous meeting in Buffalo between these two went the way of Cincinnati, 34-21 in October 2015, in a game where Andy Dalton threw a touchdown pass to Jeremy Hill, Tyler Eifert and Marvin Jones, while Giovani Bernard ran for a score.
It was over three decades ago when the Bills and Bengals squared off in the postseason, as Boomer Esiason connected with James Brooks for a TD pass in the second quarter, while Ickey Woods ran for a pair of one-yard scores, helping Cincy advance to the Super Bowl thanks to a 21-10 victory in January 1989.
Cincinnati won the other playoff meeting versus the Bills in January 1982 when Charles Alexander had two rushing scores, Pete Johnson ran for another and Cris Collinsworth caught the game-winning touchdown to give the Bengals a 28-21 triumph in the Divisional Round.
We say: Buffalo Bills 24-21 Cincinnati Bengals (overtime)
These two teams know better than most the heartache of losing in the postseason, so we should expect plenty of intensity and back-and-forth action.
When you have two elite quarterbacks and many offensive weapons on both sides, it is hard to choose a winner, but we are giving the Bills a slight edge because their running attack has been more consistent than Cincinnati's, plus their pass rush could be a handful.
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Joel Lefevre
