Championship

Championship | Gameweek 8

Sep 23, 2023 at 3pm UK

Riverside Stadium

Middlesbrough
2 - 1
Southampton

McGree (44'), Howson (66' pen.)
Jones (53'), Hackney (58'), Smith (90+6')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Armstrong (17')
Martin (54')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Middlesbrough and Southampton, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Middlesbrough

All competitions

Championship

Last Game: Sheff Weds 1-1 Middlesbrough
Tuesday, September 19 at 8pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Southampton

All competitions

Last Game: Southampton 0-1 Ipswich
Tuesday, September 19 at 7.45pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Middlesbrough 2-1 Southampton

Who prevails from this fixture is anyone's guess given the poor form of both teams. For us, though, Southampton's increasing vulnerability opens the door for Boro to finally get a win on the board when they will feel as though they are underdogs heading into this encounter. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 50.04%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 27.13% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Southampton win was 1-2 (6.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Middlesbrough in this match.

Result
Middlesbrough	Draw	Southampton
50.04% ( 0.2)	22.83% ( -0.11)	27.13% ( -0.09)

Both teams to score 61.07% (

0.33)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.58% (

0.47)

39.42% (

-0.48)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.24% (

0.49)

61.76% (

-0.5)

Middlesbrough Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.03% (

0.25)

15.97% (

-0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.74% (

0.45)

45.26% (

-0.46)

Southampton Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.68% (

0.18)

27.32% (

-0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.23% (

0.23)

62.77% (

-0.24)

Score Analysis

Middlesbrough 50.04%

Southampton 27.13%

Draw 22.83%

Middlesbrough	Draw	Southampton
2-1 @ 9.53% 1-0 @ 8% ( -0.11) 2-0 @ 7.34% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 5.83% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 4.49% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.78% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 2.67% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 2.06% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.73% ( 0.04) 5-1 @ 0.98% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.64% Total : 50.04%	1-1 @ 10.38% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 6.18% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 4.36% ( -0.1) 3-3 @ 1.64% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.27% Total : 22.83%	1-2 @ 6.74% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 5.66% ( -0.1) 0-2 @ 3.67% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 2.91% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.67% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.94% Total : 27.13%