Two teams struggling for wins in Spain's top flight will lock horns on Sunday afternoon, as Alaves welcome Valencia to Estadio de Mendizorroza.

Alaves will enter the contest off the back of a 3-1 defeat to Elche on February 5, while Valencia were in Copa del Rey action on Thursday, drawing 1-1 with Athletic Bilbao in the first leg of their semi-final.

Match preview

Alaves' Victor Laguardia celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on September 25, 2021 © Reuters

Alaves are in their sixth straight season at this level of football, finishing 16th in each of the last two campaigns, but they are currently inside the relegation zone heading into a key run of matches.

Indeed, the Basque outfit have won four, drawn five and lost 14 of their 23 league games this term to collect 17 points, which has left them in 19th spot in the table, six points behind 17th-placed Mallorca.

Jose Luis Mendilibar's side have not won in the league since the start of November, while they will enter this match off the back of three straight defeats to Real Betis, Barcelona and Elche.

El Glorioso actually took the lead against Elche last weekend through Joselu, but the home side then scored three times without reply to secure all three points, leaving Alaves inside the relegation zone.

The Basque club have only picked up 12 points from their 12 home league games this term, which is the third-worst record in the division, while they lost 3-0 at Mestalla in the reverse match back in August.

Valencia's Yunus Musah celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on January 22, 2022 © Reuters

As mentioned, Valencia were in Copa del Rey action on Thursday evening, with Los Che drawing 1-1 at San Mames in the first leg of their semi-final with Athletic Bilbao; Raul Garcia sent the home side ahead in the 37th minute before Hugo Duro levelled the scores in the second period.

Jose Bordalas's side are in a strong position to challenge for a spot in the final of the competition, but their league form has been disappointing in recent weeks, failing to triumph since December 20.

Valencia have only picked up two points from their last five league games, losing to Espanyol, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid in the process, which has seen them drop down to 11th position in the table.

Los Che are still only five points off the top six, though, and will be determined to return to winning ways on Sunday ahead of their next match at home to Barcelona on February 20.

The six-time Spanish champions have struggled for consistency on their travels in the league this term, winning three, drawing three and losing five of their 11 matches to collect 12 points.

Alaves La Liga form:

Valencia La Liga form:

Valencia form (all competitions):

Team News

Valencia's Jose Gaya celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on October 17, 2021 © Reuters

Alaves are again expected to be without the services of Ximo Navarro through injury, but the home side are otherwise in good shape heading into this weekend's contest.

Head coach Mendilibar is likely to resist the temptation to make wholesale changes from the side that started the disappointing 3-1 loss to Elche last time out.

However, there are expected to be some alterations, with Facundo Tenaglia, John Guidetti and Pere Pons all potentially coming into the first XI, while Edgar Mendez and Manu Vallejo are also options for change.

As for Valencia, Jasper Cillessen and Gabriel Paulista remain on the sidelines through injury, while Hugo Guillamon will also be absent for the visitors here due to a head injury.

The majority of the side that took to the field for the first leg of their Copa del Rey semi-final with Athletic should retain their spots, including Bryan Gil and Ilaix Moriba.

Duro's goal at San Mames could also see the attacker keep his position alongside Goncalo Guedes in attack, but Yunus Musah is likely to start on the bench once again, with Dimitri Foulquier set to retain his midfield spot.

Alaves possible starting lineup:
Pacheco; Tenaglia, Laguardia, Lejeune, Duarte; Jason, Pina, Pons, Rioja; Joselu, Guidetti

Valencia possible starting lineup:
Mamardashvili; Correira, Comert, Diakhaby, Gaya; Foulquier, Soler, Moriba; Gil, Guedes, Duro

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We say: Alaves 2-2 Valencia

Valencia are unbeaten against Alaves in La Liga since January 2019, but three of the last four league meetings between the two sides have finished level. Last season's contest at Estadio de Mendizorroza finished 2-2, and we are backing the same scoreline to occur on Sunday afternoon.

Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valencia win with a probability of 44.37%. A draw had a probability of 28.5% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Valencia win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.96%) and 1-2 (8.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.07%), while for an Alaves win it was 1-0 (10.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.