Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 25

Mar 5, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Roma
1 - 0
Juventus

Mancini (53')
Matic (33'), Cristante (57'), Spinazzola (63')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Locatelli (31'), Kostic (75')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Roma and Juventus, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Roma

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Cremonese 2-1 Roma
Tuesday, February 28 at 5.30pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Juventus

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Juventus 4-2 Torino
Tuesday, February 28 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Juventus are one of two teams, along with leaders Napoil, to have conceded the fewest goals in the second half of Serie A matches this season (eight), while Roma have only conceded nine, so both sides know how to shut up shop. It is sure to be a close-fought affair in the capital, but more misery for Mourinho could be in store, as Juve are masters of nicking a lead and doggedly preserving their advantage until the last whistle. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 41.63%. A win for Juventus had a probability of 30.52% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (7.94%). The likeliest Juventus win was 0-1 (10.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Roma in this match.

Result
Roma	Draw	Juventus
41.63% ( -0.14)	27.85% ( 0.02)	30.52% ( 0.12)

Both teams to score 47.14% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.44% (

-0.05)

58.56% (

0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.87% (

-0.04)

79.13% (

0.04)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.28% (

-0.1)

27.71% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.72% (

-0.13)

63.28% (

0.13)

Juventus Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.22% (

0.06)

34.78% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.49% (

0.07)

71.51% (

-0.07)

Score Analysis

Roma 41.62%

Juventus 30.52%

Draw 27.85%

Roma	Draw	Juventus
1-0 @ 12.36% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 8.38% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 7.94% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 3.59% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 3.39% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.89% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.15% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.09% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.83% Total : 41.62%	1-1 @ 13.06% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.64% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.43% ( -0) Other @ 0.73% Total : 27.85%	0-1 @ 10.18% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 6.9% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 5.38% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 2.43% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.89% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.56% ( 0) Other @ 2.18% Total : 30.52%