Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 37

May 19, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Roma
1 - 0
Genoa

Lukaku (79')
Paredes (72'), Lukaku (82')
Paredes (72')

FT(HT: 0-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Roma and Genoa, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Roma

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Atalanta 2-1 Roma
Sunday, May 12 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Genoa

All competitions

Last Game: Genoa 2-1 Sassuolo
Sunday, May 12 at 2pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Roma's revival under Daniele De Rossi - who recently extended his short-term contract by three years - has started to falter, so plucky Genoa could leave the capital with a point. The Grifone never know when they are beaten, and they possess sufficient firepower to test their hosts' increasingly leaky defence. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 55.91%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Genoa had a probability of 20.32%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.4%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.29%), while for a Genoa win it was 0-1 (6.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Roma in this match.

Result
Roma	Draw	Genoa
55.91% ( -0.11)	23.76% ( 0.07)	20.32% ( 0.03)

Both teams to score 49.87% (

-0.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.56% (

-0.26)

50.44% (

0.25)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.63% (

-0.23)

72.37% (

0.23)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.12% (

-0.13)

17.88% (

0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.34% (

-0.23)

48.66% (

0.23)

Genoa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.73% (

-0.11)

39.27% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.02% (

-0.1)

75.98% (

0.1)

Score Analysis

Roma 55.9%

Genoa 20.32%

Draw 23.76%

Roma	Draw	Genoa
1-0 @ 12.08% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 10.4% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.73% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 5.97% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 5.58% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.61% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 2.57% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.4% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.12% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.44% Total : 55.9%	1-1 @ 11.29% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 7.02% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 4.55% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.9% Total : 23.76%	0-1 @ 6.56% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 5.28% ( -0) 0-2 @ 3.07% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.65% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 0.96% ( 0) Other @ 1.4% Total : 20.32%