Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 10

Oct 29, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Napoli
2 - 2
AC Milan

Politano (50'), Raspadori (63')
Natan (53'), Di Lorenzo (65'), Zanoli (86')
Natan (89')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Giroud (22', 31')
Reijnders (55'), Romero (62'), Musah (78')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Napoli and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Napoli

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Union Berlin 0-1 Napoli
Tuesday, October 24 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

AC Milan

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: PSG 3-0 AC Milan
Wednesday, October 25 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Napoli have failed to beat Milan on home turf for some time now, and that run could be extended this week, as they are still not firing on all cylinders and will be missing their main marksman. Olivier Giroud's goal drought is a concern for the Rossoneri, but he tends to produce in the biggest matches, while Rafael Leao bagged a brace on his last league visit to the Maradona. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 52.01%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 25.01% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.92%) and 2-0 (8.12%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 1-2 (6.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Napoli	Draw	AC Milan
52.01% ( 0.05)	22.98% ( -0.09)	25.01% ( 0.03)

Both teams to score 58.44% (

0.33)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.02% (

0.42)

41.98% (

-0.43)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.62% (

0.42)

64.38% (

-0.43)

Napoli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.8% (

0.17)

16.2% (

-0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.31% (

0.31)

45.69% (

-0.31)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.73% (

0.25)

30.26% (

-0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.56% (

0.3)

66.44% (

-0.3)

Score Analysis

Napoli 52.01%

AC Milan 25.01%

Draw 22.98%

Napoli	Draw	AC Milan
2-1 @ 9.71% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.92% ( -0.12) 2-0 @ 8.12% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 5.89% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 4.93% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.52% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 2.68% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 2.24% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.6% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 0.98% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.43% Total : 52.01%	1-1 @ 10.66% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 5.8% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 4.9% ( -0.09) 3-3 @ 1.4% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.21% Total : 22.98%	1-2 @ 6.37% ( 0) 0-1 @ 5.86% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 3.5% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.54% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.31% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.4% ( 0) Other @ 3.02% Total : 25.01%