Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 4

Sep 17, 2023 at 5pm UK

Stadio Artemio Franchi

Fiorentina
3 - 2
Atalanta

Bonaventura (35'), Martinez (45'), Kouame (76')
Parisi (87')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Koopmeiners (20'), Lookman (53')
de Roon (34'), Zortea (65')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Fiorentina and Atalanta BC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Fiorentina

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Inter Milan 4-0 Fiorentina
Sunday, September 3 at 5.30pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Atalanta BC

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Atalanta 3-0 Monza
Saturday, September 2 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Fiorentina 1-1 Atalanta BC

Fiorentina may have to wait for their first home win of the season, as Atalanta were one of the best away teams last season and have kept a couple of clean sheets already this term. Both teams will have one eye on their upcoming European fixture, too, so a draw may represent an acceptable outcome for either manager. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 48.11%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 27.46% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.46%) and 2-0 (8.02%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 0-1 (7.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.

Result
Fiorentina	Draw	Atalanta BC
48.11% ( -0.44)	24.43% ( -0.27)	27.46% ( 0.71)

Both teams to score 55.84% (

1.44)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.55% (

1.63)

46.45% (

-1.63)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.27% (

1.52)

68.73% (

-1.52)

Fiorentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.61% (

0.46)

19.38% (

-0.46)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.81% (

0.75)

51.19% (

-0.76)

Atalanta BC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.27% (

1.4)

30.72% (

-1.4)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.02% (

1.62)

66.98% (

-1.62)

Score Analysis

Fiorentina 48.11%

Atalanta BC 27.46%

Draw 24.43%

Fiorentina	Draw	Atalanta BC
1-0 @ 9.77% ( -0.54) 2-1 @ 9.46% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 8.02% ( -0.32) 3-1 @ 5.17% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 4.38% ( -0.11) 3-2 @ 3.05% ( 0.16) 4-1 @ 2.12% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 1.8% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.25% ( 0.08) Other @ 3.08% Total : 48.11%	1-1 @ 11.53% ( -0.17) 0-0 @ 5.96% ( -0.42) 2-2 @ 5.58% ( 0.21) 3-3 @ 1.2% ( 0.1) Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.43%	0-1 @ 7.03% ( -0.21) 1-2 @ 6.8% ( 0.16) 0-2 @ 4.15% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 2.68% ( 0.16) 2-3 @ 2.2% ( 0.16) 0-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.08) Other @ 2.98% Total : 27.46%