Major League Soccer

May 19, 2024 at 12.30am UK

BMO Field

Toronto
5 - 1
Montreal

Longstaff (6'), Bernardeschi (12', 58', 60'), Osei Owusu (19')
Bernardeschi (90+1')

FT(HT: 3-0)

Sunusi (67')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between Toronto and CF Montreal, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toronto

All competitions

Last Game: Nashville 2-0 Toronto
Thursday, May 16 at 1.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

CF Montreal

All competitions

Last Game: Montreal 1-3 Columbus Crew
Thursday, May 16 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

We said: Toronto 2-0 CF Montreal

Both teams are struggling at the moment, but the Reds should get plenty of difference-makers back this weekend, which could pay dividends. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 46.08%. A win for CF Montreal had a probability of 29.19% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (7.63%). The likeliest CF Montreal win was 0-1 (7.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Toronto would win this match.

Result
Toronto	Draw	CF Montreal
46.08% ( -1.85)	24.72% ( 0.57)	29.19% ( 1.28)

Both teams to score 56.09% (

-1.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.31% (

-1.73)

46.69% (

1.73)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.04% (

-1.64)

68.95% (

1.64)

Toronto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.66% (

-1.47)

20.33% (

1.46)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.28% (

-2.39)

52.72% (

2.38)

CF Montreal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.41% (

0.03)

29.59% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.38% (

0.04)

65.62% (

-0.04)

Score Analysis

Toronto 46.08%

CF Montreal 29.19%

Draw 24.73%

Toronto	Draw	CF Montreal
1-0 @ 9.58% ( 0.26) 2-1 @ 9.3% ( -0.16) 2-0 @ 7.63% ( -0.14) 3-1 @ 4.94% ( -0.32) 3-0 @ 4.05% ( -0.27) 3-2 @ 3.01% ( -0.19) 4-1 @ 1.97% ( -0.23) 4-0 @ 1.61% ( -0.19) 4-2 @ 1.2% ( -0.14) Other @ 2.8% Total : 46.08%	1-1 @ 11.67% ( 0.33) 0-0 @ 6.02% ( 0.43) 2-2 @ 5.66% ( -0.09) 3-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.73%	0-1 @ 7.33% ( 0.53) 1-2 @ 7.11% ( 0.21) 0-2 @ 4.46% ( 0.32) 1-3 @ 2.89% ( 0.09) 2-3 @ 2.3% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.81% ( 0.13) Other @ 3.3% Total : 29.19%