Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 32

May 3, 2024 at 6pm UK

Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)

Toulouse
1 - 2
Montpellier

Dallinga (34')
Nicolaisen (54'), Diarra (60')
Nicolaisen (83')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Savanier (27'), Fayad (81')
Savanier (26'), Leroy (44'), Karamoh (90+5'), Fayad (90+6')
Savanier (65')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Ligue 1 clash between Toulouse and Montpellier HSC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toulouse

All competitions

Last Game: Lorient 1-2 Toulouse
Sunday, April 28 at 2pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Montpellier HSC

All competitions

Last Game: Montpellier 1-1 Nantes
Friday, April 26 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

We said: Toulouse 1-1 Montpellier HSC

Considering their questionable form in front of their own supporters, home advantage is set to mean little for Toulouse as they welcome Montpellier to the Southern France. Les Violets have meetings with PSG and third-placed Brest to round off the campaign, meaning that Friday's clash represents the final realistic opportunity to earn some points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montpellier HSC win with a probability of 37.67%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 37.1% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Montpellier HSC win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.39%) and 0-2 (6%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 1-0 (8.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montpellier HSC would win this match.

Result
Toulouse	Draw	Montpellier HSC
37.1% ( -0.73)	25.23% ( 0.18)	37.67% ( 0.55)

Both teams to score 56.95% (

-0.66)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.3% (

-0.85)

46.7% (

0.85)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.03% (

-0.8)

68.96% (

0.8)

Toulouse Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.31% (

-0.78)

24.69% (

0.78)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.77% (

-1.1)

59.22% (

1.11)

Montpellier HSC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.62% (

-0.09)

24.38% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.21% (

-0.13)

58.78% (

0.13)

Score Analysis

Toulouse 37.1%

Montpellier HSC 37.67%

Draw 25.22%

Toulouse	Draw	Montpellier HSC
1-0 @ 8.42% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 8.31% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 5.89% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 3.88% ( -0.14) 3-0 @ 2.75% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 2.74% ( -0.11) 4-1 @ 1.36% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 0.96% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 0.96% ( -0.06) Other @ 1.85% Total : 37.1%	1-1 @ 11.88% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 6.02% ( 0.21) 2-2 @ 5.87% ( -0.09) 3-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.22%	0-1 @ 8.5% ( 0.28) 1-2 @ 8.39% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 6% ( 0.18) 1-3 @ 3.95% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 2.82% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 2.76% ( -0.05) 1-4 @ 1.39% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1% ( 0.03) 2-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.91% Total : 37.67%