Eredivisie | Gameweek 28

Apr 3, 2024 at 5.45pm UK

Polman Stadion

Heracles
5 - 0
AZ

De Keersmaecker (19'), Hornkamp (38' pen., 40' pen.), Sankoh (90', 90+4')
De Keersmaecker (15'), Hoogma (34')

FT(HT: 3-0)

Belic (45')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Eredivisie clash between Heracles and AZ Alkmaar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Heracles

All competitions

Last Game: FC Twente 1-0 Heracles
Sunday, March 31 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions

Last Game: AZ 2-0 Vitesse
Saturday, March 30 at 8pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Heracles 1-2 AZ Alkmaar

Despite their poor run of form, Heracles have been showing the credentials to get something out of this contest. Nevertheless, AZ are also playing with the belief to edge a tight contest, and we expect that to materialise here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 57.41%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Heracles had a probability of 21.13%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.7%) and 0-1 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.87%), while for a Heracles win it was 2-1 (5.6%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.

Result
Heracles	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
21.13% ( 0.26)	21.45% ( -0.14)	57.41% ( -0.13)

Both teams to score 58.68% (

0.9)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.65% (

39.34% (

-1)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.32% (

1.04)

61.68% (

-1.03)

Heracles Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.86% (

0.82)

32.14% (

-0.82)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.38% (

0.92)

68.62% (

-0.92)

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.48% (

0.29)

13.52% (

-0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.42% (

0.57)

40.58% (

-0.58)

Score Analysis

Heracles 21.13%

AZ Alkmaar 57.41%

Draw 21.45%

Heracles	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
2-1 @ 5.6% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 4.93% ( -0.12) 2-0 @ 2.8% ( -0) 3-1 @ 2.12% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 2.12% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 1.06% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.5% Total : 21.13%	1-1 @ 9.87% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 5.6% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 4.35% ( -0.21) 3-3 @ 1.41% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.22% Total : 21.45%	1-2 @ 9.87% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 8.7% ( -0.22) 0-1 @ 8.7% ( -0.32) 1-3 @ 6.59% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 5.8% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 3.74% ( 0.11) 1-4 @ 3.29% ( 0.06) 0-4 @ 2.9% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.87% ( 0.08) 1-5 @ 1.32% ( 0.04) 0-5 @ 1.16% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.47% Total : 57.41%