Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 1

Aug 20, 2023 at 2.30pm UK

Stadion An der Alten Forsterei

Union Berlin
4 - 1
Mainz

Behrens (1', 9', 70'), Pantovic (90+6')
Behrens (10')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Caci (64')
Jae-sung (31'), Kohr (51'), da Costa (58'), Barreiro (79'), van den Berg (90+1'), Svensson (90+90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Union Berlin and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Union Berlin

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Astoria Walldorf 0-4 Union Berlin
Sunday, August 13 at 5pm in DFB-Pokal

Goals
for

Mainz 05

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Elversberg 0-1 Mainz
Saturday, August 12 at 5pm in DFB-Pokal

Goals
for

We said: Union Berlin 2-1 Mainz 05

Having made some impressive signings during the summer transfer window, in contrast to Mainz who may start with no debutants, Union Berlin will sense an excellent opportunity to build momentum from the outset on Sunday. Mainz have established themselves as a solid mid-table side under Svensson, but they may be lacking a little quality and belief to gain a result at a potentially rocking Stadion An der Alten Forsterei. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 50.29%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 24.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 2-0 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.83%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 0-1 (7.37%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.

Result
Union Berlin	Draw	Mainz 05
50.29% ( 1.17)	24.89% ( 0.06)	24.82% ( -1.23)

Both teams to score 52% (

-1.35)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.6% (

-1.23)

50.39% (

1.23)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.67% (

-1.1)

72.33% (

1.1)

Union Berlin Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.95%

20.05% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.73% (

-0)

52.26% (

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.04% (

-1.69)

34.96% (

1.7)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.3% (

-1.82)

71.7% (

1.82)

Score Analysis

Union Berlin 50.29%

Mainz 05 24.82%

Draw 24.88%

Union Berlin	Draw	Mainz 05
1-0 @ 11.26% ( 0.55) 2-1 @ 9.51% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 9.05% ( 0.44) 3-1 @ 5.1% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 4.85% ( 0.23) 3-2 @ 2.68% ( -0.12) 4-1 @ 2.05% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.95% ( 0.09) 4-2 @ 1.08% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.77% Total : 50.29%	1-1 @ 11.83% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 7.01% ( 0.34) 2-2 @ 5% ( -0.22) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.88%	0-1 @ 7.37% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 6.22% ( -0.27) 0-2 @ 3.87% ( -0.17) 1-3 @ 2.18% ( -0.2) 2-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.16) 0-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.13) Other @ 2.08% Total : 24.82%