Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 13

Dec 3, 2023 at 2.30pm UK

Mewa Arena

Mainz
0 - 1
Freiburg

Barreiro (29')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Gregoritsch (69')
Sallai (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Freiburg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mainz 05

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Hoffenheim 1-1 Mainz
Sunday, November 26 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Freiburg

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Freiburg 5-0 Olympiacos
Thursday, November 30 at 5.45pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Mainz 05 1-1 Freiburg

Although Mainz appear to have overcome their early season slump, they are still struggling to put wins on the board, and we can envisage that continuing on Sunday. Freiburg probably have a little more quality than the hosts but they are struggling to juggle two competitions at present, so they may be content to claim a point. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 40.78%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 33.19% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.69%) and 2-0 (7%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 0-1 (8.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.

Result
Mainz 05	Draw	Freiburg
40.78% ( 4.99)	26.03% ( 1)	33.19% ( -5.98)

Both teams to score 53.62% (

-3.92)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.27% (

-4.83)

50.72% (

4.83)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.37% (

-4.42)

72.62% (

4.42)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.44% (

0.48)

24.56% (

-0.48)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.96% (

0.67)

59.04% (

-0.67)

Freiburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.08% (

-5.69)

28.92% (

5.69)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.2% (

-7.66)

64.8% (

7.66)

Score Analysis

Mainz 05 40.78%

Freiburg 33.19%

Draw 26.03%

Mainz 05	Draw	Freiburg
1-0 @ 9.97% ( 1.92) 2-1 @ 8.69% ( 0.55) 2-0 @ 7% ( 1.43) 3-1 @ 4.07% ( 0.31) 3-0 @ 3.28% ( 0.7) 3-2 @ 2.52% ( -0.22) 4-1 @ 1.43% ( 0.13) 4-0 @ 1.15% ( 0.26) Other @ 2.68% Total : 40.78%	1-1 @ 12.37% ( 0.62) 0-0 @ 7.1% ( 1.29) 2-2 @ 5.39% ( -0.55) 3-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.29) Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.03%	0-1 @ 8.81% ( 0.32) 1-2 @ 7.68% ( -0.91) 0-2 @ 5.47% ( -0.73) 1-3 @ 3.17% ( -1) 0-3 @ 2.26% ( -0.76) 2-3 @ 2.23% ( -0.66) 1-4 @ 0.99% ( -0.54) Other @ 2.59% Total : 33.19%