Conceding five goals to a team that had not even registered once in their first six 2024 league matches is surely a harbinger of doom for Criciuma against a Paranaense side needing to right a few wrongs on Thursday. The hosts may have lost a couple of key players to Copa America call-ups, but as Cuca's men almost always produce the goods at home, they ought to have no trouble pulling themselves out of their rut and prolonging Criciuma's dismal sequence. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 72.69%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for Criciuma had a probability of 10.01%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.71%) and 3-0 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.22%), while for a Criciuma win it was 0-1 (3.64%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletico Paranaense would win this match.

Result
Athletico Paranaense	Draw	Criciuma
72.69% ( 0.11)	17.3% ( -0.04)	10.01% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 45.14% (

-0.15)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.73% (

-0.05)

43.27% (

0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.33% (

-0.05)

65.66% (

0.06)

Athletico Paranaense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.53% (

0.02)

10.47% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

65.9% (

0.03)

34.1% (

-0.03)

Criciuma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

50.42% (

-0.18)

49.58% (

0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

15.63% (

-0.13)

84.37% (

0.13)

Score Analysis

Athletico Paranaense 72.67%

Criciuma 10.02%

Draw 17.3%

Athletico Paranaense	Draw	Criciuma
2-0 @ 13.21% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 11.71% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 9.94% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 9.27% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 6.98% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 5.61% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 3.94% ( -0) 5-0 @ 2.53% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.45% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 1.78% 4-2 @ 1.38% ( -0.01) 6-0 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.93% Total : 72.67%	1-1 @ 8.22% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.19% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 3.25% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.63% Total : 17.3%	0-1 @ 3.64% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 2.88% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 1.28% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.21% Total : 10.02%