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Uruguay national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Sep 9, 2021 at 11.30pm UK
 
Ecuador national football team

Uruguay
1 - 0
Ecuador

Pereiro (90+2')
Bentancur (66'), Nandez (76')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Castillo (59')

Preview: Uruguay vs. Ecuador - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Uruguay and Ecuador, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Following a victory last time out, Uruguay will look to strengthen their World Cup Qualifying bid on Thursday, when they welcome Ecuador to Montevido.

La Celeste comfortably defeated Bolivia on Sunday to move within a single point of Thursday's visitors, who drew 0-0 with Chile to cling on to third spot in the qualifying group.


Match preview

Uruguay manager Oscar Tabarez pictured on October 8, 2020© Reuters

While Uruguay started the World Cup Qualifying campaign in relatively impressive fashion, picking up a 2-1 win over Chile and a 3-0 victory against Colombia either side of a 4-2 defeat at the hands of Ecuador, they headed into this summer's Copa America on the back of a 2-0 loss to Brazil and disappointing draws with Paraguay and Venezuela.

Oscar Tabarez's men then failed to impress at the continental tournament, only picking up wins over Bolivia and Paraguay in the group stage to progress in second spot.

La Celeste then played out a goalless draw in their quarter-final clash with Colombia, but fell short in a penalty shootout to make an early exit in the first knockout round.

Upon their return to qualifying action in September, Uruguay's struggle for form continued as they were forced to settle for a point against Peru, with Giorgian de Arrascaeta drawing them level on the half-hour mark after Renato Tapia's opener for their opponents.

Tabarez's side certainly showed positive signs last time out though, as Da Arrascaeta again starred in a 4-2 victory over Bolivia, netting a brace alongside goals from Federico Valverde and Agustin Alvarez, while Marcelo Moreno got on the scoresheet twice for La Verde, including a late consolation goal.

With that victory seeing them establish themselves in the top four, La Celeste will be keen to build consistency with a second straight victory that would see them leapfrog their opponents, who handed them a 4-2 defeat earlier in the campaign.

Ecuador coach Gustavo Alfaro before the match on June 13, 2021© Reuters

After suffering narrow 1-0 defeat to Argentina in their opening qualifying game last year, Ecuador bounced back in style as Michael Estrada hit a brace alongside goals from Moises Caicedo and Gonzalo Plata to topple Thursday's opponents.

They built on that with a 3-2 away win over Bolivia and a 6-1 thrashing of Colombia, but would then head into the Copa America on the back of defeats at the hands of Brazil and Peru, giving their World Cup Qualification hopes a hit.

Despite failing to pick up a victory in the continental competition, Ecuador progressed to the quarter-finals with three points from their four group games, including an impressive 1-1 draw with pre-tournament favourites Brazil, but they were handed a 3-0 defeat by eventual winners Argentina when they met in the knockout stage.

Upon their return to qualifying action, La Tricolor bounced back to winning ways, as Felix Torres and Estrada hit late goals to see them defeat Paraguay 2-0 on home turf.

They built on that with another positive result last time out, playing out a goalless draw with Chile to keep hold of third spot with an impressive tally of 13 points from their first eight outings.

With the top four nations earning automatic progression to next year's World Cup, Gustavo Alfaro will be desperate for his side to pick up a positive result to fend off the chasing pack, as they look to reach the tournament in Qatar after failing to qualify for the 2018 World Cup in Russia.

Uruguay World Cup Qualifying - South America form:
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • W

Uruguay form (all competitions):
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W

Ecuador World Cup Qualifying - South America form:
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • D

Ecuador form (all competitions):
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • D



Team News

Uruguay's Diego Godin pictured on June 21, 2021© Reuters

Uruguay have been without star strikers Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani, the nation's first and second all-time top scorers respectively, for this round of fixtures, and they again head into the final game without the Atletico Madrid and Manchester United stars.

In their absence, the likes of Agustin Alvarez and Maxi Gomez have featured in attack, while Giorgian de Arrascaeta has stepped up in impressive fashion, hitting three goals in two games.

Despite being replaced by Ronald Araujo in the second half last time out, experienced centre-back Diego Godin should again be trusted by Tabarez alongside former Atletico Madrid teammate Jose Gimenez, with the pair boasting 217 combined appearances for La Celeste.

Further forward, Real Madrid prospect Federico Valverde has made himself a star in the Uruguay engine room, and he will again feature in the centre with Inter Milan's Matias Vecino and Juventus' Rodrigo Bentancur.

Ecuador come into Thursday's game without winger Junior Sornoza, who was sent off in the goalless draw with Chile and will serve a suspension as a result.

First-choice goalkeeper Hernan Galindez will also miss out, as he did not travel to Uruguay after picking up an injury last time out, while important midfielder Jhegson Mendez is also sidelined.

Enner Valencia will again lead the line as he continues to search for a 32nd international goal to see him move clear of Agustin Delgado as the country's all-time top scorer.

Angel Mena should again play a key role in the front line, while the likes of Gonzalo Plata and Michael Estrada will battle to replace Sornoza.

Uruguay possible starting lineup:
Muslera; Nandez, Godin, Gimenez, Piquerez; Valverde, Bentancur, Vecino; De Arrascaeta, Alvarez, Rodriguez

Ecuador possible starting lineup:
Ortiz; Hurtado, Torres, Hincapie, Estupinan; Cifuentes, Gruezo, Caicedo; Mena, Valencia, Plata


SM words green background

We say: Uruguay 2-1 Ecuador

Uruguay's win last time out could provide plenty of positivity after their struggles to find consistency, While Ecuador have majorly impressed in the World Cup Qualifying campaign so far and will be desperate to remain ahead of La Celeste.

Ultimately, we see Tabarez's men having enough quality, even without Suarez and Cavani, to break down Ecuador's resilient back line, with De Arrascaeta potentially inspiring his nation to another crucial win in their bid to reach next year's World Cup.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home Win:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 62.74%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Ecuador had a probability of 11.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 1-0 with a probability of 20.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.35%) and 3-0 (7.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.17%), while for a Ecuador win it was 0-1 (6.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 20.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Uruguay in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Uruguay vs Ecuador

Uruguay
60.8%
Draw
20.3%
Ecuador
19.0%
158
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Ecuador's Robert Arboleda with teammates look dejected after the match on October 9, 2020
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CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Argentina Argentina1071222
2 Colombia Colombia1054119
3 Uruguay flag Uruguay1044216
4 Ecuador flag Ecuador1044216
5 Brazil Brazil1051416
6 Paraguay flag Paraguay1034313
7 Bolivia flag Bolivia1040612
8 Venezuela Venezuela1025311
9 Peru flag Peru101366
10 Chile Chile101275

CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Argentina Argentina1071222
2 Colombia Colombia1054119
3 Uruguay flag Uruguay1044216
4 Ecuador flag Ecuador1044216
5 Brazil Brazil1051416
6 Paraguay flag Paraguay1034313
7 Bolivia flag Bolivia1040612
8 Venezuela Venezuela1025311
9 Peru flag Peru101366
10 Chile Chile101275


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