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Chile national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Nov 17, 2021 at 12.15am UK
 
Ecuador national football team

Chile
0 - 2
Ecuador


Meneses (55')
Vidal (14')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Estupinan (9'), Caicedo (90+3')
Castillo (26'), Franco (45+2')

Preview: Chile vs. Ecuador - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Chile and Ecuador, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Two sides in rich veins of form will square off in World Cup 2022 Qualifying action on Wednesday, as Chile welcome Ecuador.

The hosts have now won three consecutive games to climb to fourth, while their visitors continue to defy the odds in third spot after 13 qualifying games.


Match preview

Chile's Eduardo Vargas celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on June 14, 2021© Reuters

After a slow start, Chile's hopes of reaching next year's World Cup looked particularly slim, as they sat on just seven points from 10 outings following back-to-back defeats, but they have now found form to give themselves a good chance.

La Roja arrested the slump with a 2-0 home win over Paraguay, thanks to goals from Ben Brereton Diaz and Mauricio Isla, before an Erick Pulgar brace and another Brereton Diaz goal fired them to an eye-catching 3-0 victory at home to Venezuela.

Upon their return to action last time out, Martin Lasarte's men made it three wins on the spin, as they again defeated Paraguay with Alexis Sanchez hitting the only goal of the game.

Such an upturn in form has seen Chile climb into the top four of the South American qualifying group, meaning they currently occupy an automatic qualification spot, but with fifth-placed Colombia and sixth-placed Uruguay sitting level on points, Lasarte's men have no room for error if they are to book their spot in Qatar.

Ecuador's Angel Mena celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on June 27, 2021© Reuters

Their visitors arrive looking to keep hold of their spot in the top three after a particularly impressive qualifying campaign.

After a narrow opening defeat to Argentina, La Tricolor put a run of three straight victories together, and they have held onto a top-four spot since.

Despite somewhat struggling for consistency recently, Gustavo Alfaro's side head into Wednesday's game in a run of three games without a defeat, having first drawn with Colombia before beating Mexico 3-2 in a friendly in October.

They returned to qualifying action with a victory on Thursday, as Piero Hincapie netted the only goal of the game at home to Venezuela.

That saw them remain four points ahead of fourth spot, and, in a group packed with quality, La Tri will be desperate to continue defying the odds to secure an unlikely qualification for next year's tournament.

Chile World Cup Qualifying - South America form:
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W

Ecuador World Cup Qualifying - South America form:
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W

Ecuador form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • W



Team News

Alexis Sanchez pictured for Chile in June 2021© Reuters

Chile continue to rely heavily on their experienced core, with Gary Medel, Mauricio Isla and Arturo Vidal still playing key roles.

Talismanic forward Alexis Sanchez, who leads the way in La Roja's all-time appearance and scoring charts, has also recently returned to the squad after an injury, and he will again lead the line after his winner last time out.

However, exciting forward Ben Brereton Diaz, who has started life as a Chile international in impressive fashion with three goals in eight games, will miss out through suspension.

After another strong performance last time out, Ecuador could head into Wednesday's game with an unchanged side, with Moises Caicedo and Carlos Gruezo handling business in the centre.

Felix Torres and Piero Hincapie stood strong to keep a clean sheet, and they will again be trusted to shield Alexander Dominguez between the sticks.

Chile possible starting lineup:
Bravo; Maripan, Medel, Roco; Nunez, Mena, Vidal, Baeza, Valdes; Sanchez, Vargas

Ecuador possible starting lineup:
Dominguez; Castillo, Torres, Hincapie, Cruz; Gruezo, Caicedo; Plata, Sarmiento, Preciado; Reasco


SM words green background

We say: Chile 1-1 Ecuador

While Chile boast more quality than their opponents on paper, Ecuador have over performed this campaign and have proved themselves to be difficult to beat.

With all factors considered, and given both sides' desire to fend off the chasing pack, we predict a share of the spoils on Wednesday.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:curl



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chile win with a probability of 57.52%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Ecuador had a probability of 19.22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chile win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.7%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.06%), while for a Ecuador win it was 0-1 (6.26%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Chile vs Ecuador

Chile
47.9%
Draw
20.8%
Ecuador
31.3%
96
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Chile's Ben Brereton Diaz celebrates scoring their first goal against Paraguay on October 11, 2021
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CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Argentina Argentina1071222
2 Colombia Colombia1054119
3 Uruguay flag Uruguay1044216
4 Ecuador flag Ecuador1044216
5 Brazil Brazil1051416
6 Paraguay flag Paraguay1034313
7 Bolivia flag Bolivia1040612
8 Venezuela Venezuela1025311
9 Peru flag Peru101366
10 Chile Chile101275

CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying

TeamPWDLPTS
1 Argentina Argentina1071222
2 Colombia Colombia1054119
3 Uruguay flag Uruguay1044216
4 Ecuador flag Ecuador1044216
5 Brazil Brazil1051416
6 Paraguay flag Paraguay1034313
7 Bolivia flag Bolivia1040612
8 Venezuela Venezuela1025311
9 Peru flag Peru101366
10 Chile Chile101275


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