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Preview: Indian Wells: Jack Draper vs. Taylor Fritz - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Indian Wells fourth-round match between Jack Draper and Taylor Fritz, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Fresh off comebacks of different variations, Jack Draper and Californian Taylor Fritz tussle in the Indian Wells fourth round on Wednesday, with a last-eight berth the victor's reward when Britain's No. 1 faces America's top-ranked star.

Draper was down 4-1 in the opening set before overcoming his slow start to beat Jenson Brooksby 7-5, 6-4, while the 2022 Indian Wells champion claimed sets two and three against Alejandro Tabilo to advance to the last 16 for the fifth consecutive year and sixth time overall.


Match preview

Jack Draper reacts at the Australian Open on January 15, 2025© Imago

A shock seemed on the cards in the Californian desert in set one when Britain's top player trailed Brooksby 4-1; however, the 23-year-old rallied to seal a victory in straight sets.

That outcome was the two-time ATP champion's ninth triumph this season and fifth overall at Indian Wells as he advanced to a second last-16 match in the Californian desert to follow 2023's run.

While that performance two years ago ended at the hands of Carlos Alcaraz, who claimed a maiden title then, Draper will back himself to oust Fritz in the pair's fifth match-up on the ATP Tour, aiming for another deep run after reaching the Doha final.

That Middle East event ended in defeat to Andrey Rublev, who became the second man to beat Draper in 2025 and is the only player to defeat the Brit in seven matches, highlighting the 13th seed's form.

Keen to reach a maiden last-eight berth at the BNP Paribas Open, the 23-year-old must defeat the local boy and 2022 champion to advance his ambition to claim the biggest title of an embryonic career.

Taylor Fritz reacts at the ATP Finals on November 14, 2024© Imago

Fritz's match with Tabilo was unwatchable at times, with both players ropey in their execution, but the American No. 1 tightened up to claim the comeback victory for a fifth last-16 match on the trot and sixth appearance in the fourth round.

The United States player's 4-6, 6-3, 6-1 success means he has emulated Michael Chang, Pete Sampras and Andy Roddick as the American players to progress to five round-four matches in succession, and the third seed aims to reach the last eight for the fourth time and go one better than last year.

Fritz's fourth-round elimination 12 months ago at the hands of Holger Rune put paid to the 27-year-old's bid for a fourth quarter-final appearance on the trot, but the Californian-born star seeks another deep run in the desert.

Having claimed his biggest career title in these parts, the 2022 champion player aims to overcome Draper for the third time in the past four match-ups to set up an all-American last-eight meeting with Brandon Nakashima or Ben Shelton.

Fritz now holds a 22-7 record at his favourite ATP 1000 event, where he has a 76% win rate, and the eight-time titlist bids for a 23rd to edge ahead in his head-to-head with Wednesday's opponent.


Tournament so far

Jack Draper:

First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Joao Fonseca 6-4 6-0
Third round: vs. Jenson Brooksby 7-5 6-4

Taylor Fritz:

First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Matteo Gigante 6-3 7-5
Third round: vs. Alejandro Tabilo 4-6 6-3 6-1


Head To Head

Paris Masters (2024) - Round of 32: Draper 7-6(6) 4-6 6-4

Paris Olympics (2024) - Round of 32: Fritz 6-7(3) 6-3 6-2

Munich (2024) - Quarter-final: Fritz 4-6 6-3 7-6(1)

Queen's Club (2022) - Round of 32: Draper 6-3 6-2

Draper and Fritz have played on every surface on the ATP Tour, with the British player claiming their only encounter on grass and hard courts, while the world No. 4 secured consecutive victories on clay in 2024.

Strikingly, Draper getting the better of the American star in last year's Paris Masters ended the No. 13 seed's two-match losing run against the world No. 4, and he looks to secure a third success in their head-to-head to follow 2022's triumph at the Queen's Club and in Bercy.

However, the British player has fallen to three consecutive defeats against top-10 players, falling to Alex de Minaur, Alcaraz and Rublev, even if his last triumph over such players was in the Masters event at Fritz's expense.

The American enters Wednesday's match with 11 wins in 12 against opponents outside the top-10 ranked players at Indian Wells, with 2023's defeat by Jannik Sinner — then world No. 13 — his only loss, and the 27-year-old aims for his 12th victory in 13 over such players.


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We say: Draper to win in three sets

Since their maiden match-up in London, Draper and Fritz have played three-setters in three encounters before Wednesday's contest in the Californian desert.

Although the Briton could drop a set for the first time in California this year, we back the battling 13th seed to eject the home player for a first quarter-final appearance at the ATP 1000 event.

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Written by
Anthony Brown

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Jack Draper pictured on October 22, 2024
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