Olympics: Brazil vs. USA – prediction, team news, lineups
Olympic glory will be on the line when Brazil Women face USA Women in Saturday's gold medal match at the Parc des Princes.
Brazil eliminated 2023 World Cup winners Spain in the last four, while the USA outlasted Germany to claim an extra-time victory in their semi-final tie.
Match preview
Brazil are set to make their third appearance in the final of the Women's football tournament at the Olympics despite producing an underwhelming group-stage performance.
The Selecao edged out Nigeria in their opener, before they suffered consecutive defeats to Japan and Spain, ensuring they had to settle for one of the best third-placed spots.
However, Brazil ultimately returned to winning ways in their quarter-final clash against Olympic hosts France, with Gabi Portilho scoring the decisive goal in a narrow 1-0 victory.
They then produced an exceptional performance to claim a surprise 4-2 win over Spain in Tuesday's semi-final thanks to an own goal and efforts from Gabi Portilho, Adriana and Kerolin.
Brazil are guaranteed to claim their first medal since clinching silver in 2004 and 2008, and they now have the opportunity to win their first gold in the women's football tournament.
Arthur Elias's side will go into Saturday's final as the underdogs, with the Selecao looking to claim their first win over the USA since recording a 3-2 victory in a friendly in December 2014.
Emma Hayes is guaranteed to collect an Olympic medal just over two months after taking charge of her first game as USA's head coach.
Hayes has started her tenure with an impressive nine-game unbeaten run, including the five matches that have seen the USA progress to their first Olympic final since 2012.
The Stars and Stripes topped their group with wins over Zambia, Germany and Australia, before they claimed a narrow 1-0 extra-time victory in their quarter-final clash with Japan.
They went on to repeat their extra-time heroics in Tuesday's semi-final tie against Germany, with Sophia Smith scoring a 95th-minute winner to clinch a 1-0 victory, ensuring the USA can now look forward to their sixth Olympic final.
The Stars and Stripes have previously won gold in 1996, 2004, 2008 and 2012, while their only defeat in an Olympic final took place in 2004 when they suffered an extra-time loss against Norway.
The USA will take confidence from the fact they have won each of their last seven games against Brazil, including a narrow 1-0 victory in the CONCACAF Gold Cup final in March.
Brazil Olympic Games form: WLLWW
Brazil form (all competitions): WWLLWW
USA Olympic Games form: WWWWW
USA form (all competitions): DWWWWW
Brazil vs. USA odds
Ahead of the final game of the women's football tournament at the 2024 Olympics, the USA Women are the favourites to win the gold with a 48.80% win probability, while Brazil Women have a 21.70% win probability.
Brazil Women Odds: 18/5 – 21.70% probability
Draw Odds: 17/5 – 22.70% probability
USA Women Odds: 9/4 – 30.80% probability
When it comes to the most popular goal markets, over 2.5 total goals is priced at 13/10 and a 43.50% probability, while under 2.5 total goals has 3/5 odds and a 62.50% probability. Meanwhile, the odds for both teams to score are 21/20, which implies a 48.80% probability.
If you prefer to bet on players and their individual abilities, the top candidate to score a goal for the USA Women is Sophia Smith at 21/10 odds and a 32.30% probability, while for Brazil Women the most likely goalscorer according to the bookies is Nunes da Silva Gabi at 3/1 odds and a 25.00% probability.
Team News
The Selecao are expected to be without Antonia, Rafaelle Souza and Tamires, while Lauren Leal will have to be assessed after being forced off in the latter stages of the semi-final.
Having completed a two-match suspension, Brazil legend Marta is available for selection and is likely to start her last match in a major international tournament.
Corinthians forward Gabi Portilho will be looking to continue her fine form after finding the net in the previous two matches against France and Spain.
As for the USA, Hayes could be tempted to select an unchanged starting lineup as long as there are no fresh injury concerns ahead of the final.
Naomi Girma has been one of the standout players in the tournament, and she will be looking to produce another strong defensive display when she lines up in the back four on Saturday.
Smith, Mallory Swanson and Trinity Rodman will continue to operate in the forward line, having scored three goals each during the course of the 2024 Olympics.
Brazil possible starting lineup: Lorena; Thais, Lauren, Tarciane; Ludmila, Duda, Yaya, Yasmim; Jheniffer, Marta, Portilho
USA possible starting lineup: Naeher; Fox, Girma, Davidson, Dunn; Horan, Coffey, Lavelle; Rodman, Swanson, Rodman
We say: Brazil Women 1-2 USA Women
In contrast to their opponents, the USA are yet to lose at the 2024 Olympics, and we think they will ultimately have the extra quality required to claim a narrow win in the gold medal match, especially as they boast a strong defence and a dangerous frontline.
