Hong Kong will play Bahrain in World Cup qualifying on Tuesday at the Bahrain National Stadium.
Bahrain are the favourites in this tie, but neither nation has enjoyed a particularly spectacular campaign, and this game is in danger of being a bit of a dead rubber.
Match preview
Bahrain are currently third in Group C, three points off second-placed Bahrain and five points off group leaders Iraq.
Despite the slim margins, the general narrative of the group suggests that Bahrain have not done enough this term to warrant qualification from the group.
Last time out against Iran, Bahrain were bested 3-0, with Sardar Azmoun and Mehdi Taremi both bagging goals for the hosts in that one.
The last time these two sides met was in November 2019, and it ended 0-0, with no side really seizing the opportunity.
Hong Kong have given this campaign a good go, but the minnows are still a long way off the pace in terms of keeping up with the big boys of the group.
Currently fourth in the group, Hong Kong have five points, four better than last-placed Cambodia, who have conceded 44 goals in eight games.
Hong Kong have picked up one win so far, against Cambodia, and two draws, against Bahrain and Cambodia.
Head coach Mixu Paatelainen will hope his side can go that step further this time out and beat Bahrain.
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Team News
Bahrain could look to shake things up on Tuesday after the side lost to Iran last time out.
Ahmed Moosa Ali, Ali Madan and Sayed Dhiya Saeed all came on for Bahrain in that tie and are likely to be in consideration for more minutes this week.
Fung Hing Wa scored an own goal for Hong Kong earlier this week and could face a spell on the bench as a result.
Ngan Lok Fung, Sun Ming Him and Yu Wai Lim will also be in contention for minutes after good cameos in that tie.
Bahrain possible starting lineup:
Jaffer; Madan, Al-Shamsan, Al Hayam, Nabeel; Mahoon, Al Malood, Isa; Al-Romaihi, Al-Shaikh, Al-Humaidan
Hong Kong possible starting lineup:
Fai; Kit, Wa, Helio; Wai, Orr, Eli, Roberto, Yang; Ha, Chan
We say: Bahrain 1-1 Hong Kong
We are not expecting too many fireworks from this one, but both sides do have the players to hurt one another. We reckon this one could end in a stalemate.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahrain win with a probability of 50.3%. A win for Hong Kong had a probability of 25.95% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahrain win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.51%) and 2-0 (8.2%). The likeliest Hong Kong win was 1-2 (6.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.15%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bahrain would win this match.
