Sydney FC begin their championship defence on Saturday when they take on Adelaide United at the Netstrata Jubilee Stadium for a place in the playoffs final.
Adelaide United claimed a hard-earned 2-1 win over Brisbane Roar in the playoff elimination game on Sunday to set up a mouth-watering semi-final showdown with Sydney, who secured an automatic ticket following their second-placed finish in the regular season.
Match preview
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Sydney FC entered the 2020-21 campaign in emphatic style after winning the league and claiming the championship title for a record fifth time with a 1-0 victory over Melbourne City in the final.
However, Steve Corica's men failed to defend their league title as they finished second in the A-League table, two points behind Melbourne City, who claimed their maiden Premier's Plate.
Nonetheless, Sydney enjoyed an impressive campaign, picking up 13 wins and eight draws from 26 outings and finishing with the meanest defence in the league with 23 goals conceded.
The Sky Blues ended their season on a perfect note as they picked up five wins from their final five games of the campaign, while scoring 10 goals and conceding just one.
Clearly the appointment of Corica back in 2018 has brought a higher level of success to the Sydney outfit, who are seeking a record-extending sixth championship title and their third with 48-year-old at the helm.
Meanwhile, after losing out on a place in the playoffs last season, Adelaide United confirmed their return on the final day of the season as they held 10-man Western Sydney Wanderers to a 2-2 draw at the Hindmarsh Stadium.
With the stakes high for both sides, the Reds took an 11th-minute lead thanks to an own goal from Ziggy Gordon, but Ryan Strain returned the favour as he inadvertently sent the ball through his posts before Graham Dorrans and Craig Goodwin scored for either side to force a share of the spoils.
That helped Carl Veart's side seal a fifth-placed finish, just above Macarthur on goal difference, with the Bulls clinching the final playoff ticket despite a 3-0 final-day defeat at the hands of Wellington Phoenix, who missed out on a place in the playoffs by just one point.
This was followed by a 2-1 win against Brisbane Roar when both sides went head-to-head for a place in the semi-final last Sunday.
Adelaide United raced to a two-goal lead thanks to a first-half brace from forward Tomi Juric before Alex Parsons halved the deficit in the 56th minute.
They will now aim to move one step closer to securing the championship crown for the second time in their history after tasting success in 2016, when they claimed a 3-1 over Western Sydney Wanderers in the final.
However, they face the daunting task of taking on a high-flying Sydney side who have claimed wins in five of their last eight meetings, with the most recent coming on May 29, when they cruised to a comfortable 4-1 victory.
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Team News
© ReutersBarring any late fitness issues, Sydney head into this game with a full strength squad who are fully rested having played their last game on June 5.
Bobo finished as the Sky Blues' leading scorer with 11 goals in 21 outings and we expect the veteran forward to lead their attack once again, alongside 23-year-old forward Dylan Wenzel-Halls.
Adelaide United suffered a major injury blow as midfielder Craig Goodwin sustained a foot injury in training which ruled him out of the game against Brisbane Roar and he remains a doubt for Saturday's encounter.
With five goals and eight assists to his name, the 29-year-old has been lethal for the visitors since returning to the club on loan from Saudi-based club Al-Wehda back in February.
Sydney FC possible starting lineup:
Heward-Belle; Retre, Wilkinson, Warland, King; Barbarouses, Brattan, Caceres, Ninkovic; Bobo, Le Fondre
Adelaide United possible starting lineup:
Delianov; Strain, Elsey, Jakobsen, Lopez; D'Arrigo, Cavallo; Halloran, Mauk, Kitto; Juric
We say: Sydney FC 2-1 Adelaide United
Sydney head into the game off the back of an impressive regular season performance and will aim to carry on with that momentum. While we predict Adelaide United will put up a fight, we are tipping the Sky Blues to claim the win and dash the hopes of the Reds, given their level of experience at this stage of the competition.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sydney FC win with a probability of 51.01%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 25.23% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sydney FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.66%) and 2-0 (8.44%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 0-1 (6.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sydney FC would win this match.
