Saudi Arabia and Uzbekistan will compete for a spot in the third round of World Cup qualifying in Asia when they meet in a winner-takes-all clash on Tuesday.
With one game in the second round to play, the hosts top Group D on 17 points, with the visitors just behind on 15; only the group winner automatically qualifies for the next round.
Match preview
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Saudi Arabia are yet to lose in seven games in qualifying, winning five times and drawing twice. They have not been beaten in a competitive fixture since December 2019 when they lost to Bahrain in the final of the Arabian Gulf Cup.
Herve Renard's team have played four times so far in 2021 – three qualifying games and a friendly – and won them all; scoring 12 goals and not conceding at all.
On Friday they were 3-0 winners over Singapore; the score was 0-0 until the 84th minute, but late goals from Salem Al-Dawsari, Fahad Al-Muwallad and Saleh Al-Shehri secured what was ultimately a resounding victory.
Saudi Arabia are aiming to qualify for back-to-back World Cups having bowed out in the group stage in 2018, the same year that manager Renard coached Morocco in the tournament.
Uzbekistan have never qualified for the World Cup, but they will hope to take a step towards changing that with victory in Riyadh.
If the Turanians do not win the group, they could reach the next round of qualifying by ranking as one of the best runner-up teams, but they may need a point on Tuesday for that to happen.
Uzbekistan just about kept their qualifying dreams alive on Friday with a narrow 1-0 win over Yemen courtesy of a first half penalty from Jaloliddin Masharipov.
Nonetheless, it was a fourth win in five games for Vadim Abramov's side and a third consecutive victory in this qualifying campaign, all of which have been accompanied by clean sheets.
When the two countries met earlier in the campaign all the way back in November 2019, Saudi Arabia won a thrilling game 3-2 having trailed 2-1 with five minutes to go; Al-Dawsari was the hero that day with a winning goal in the 89th-minute.
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Team News
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Fahad Al-Muwallad has more international goals than anyone else in the Saudi Arabia squad and has netted four times in his last three appearances.
Salem Al-Dawsari, also a goalscorer against Singapore, is unavailable after picking up a second booking of this qualifying campaign on Friday, but Abdullah Otayf returns after his own suspension.
Midfielder Abdulellah Al-Malki was the only player in the starting XI against Singapore that does not play for domestic champions Al-Hilal.
Uzbekistan will be able to call upon midfielder Otabek Shukurov following the completion of his one-match suspension for picking up two bookings in qualifying.
Jaloliddin Masharipov has three goals in his last two international appearances and is the team's main attacking threat along with Genoa's Eldor Shomurodov.
Saudi Arabia possible starting lineup:
Al-Owais; Al-Burayk, Al-Boleahi, Al-Khabrani, Al-Shahrani; Al-Malki, Otayf; Al-Muwallad, Al-Faraj, Al-Kwikbi; Al-Hamdan
Uzbekistan possible starting lineup:
Kuvvatov; Alijonov, Kobilov, Eshmurodov, Zoteev; Akhmedov, Shukurov, Alibaev; Khamdamov, Shomurodov, Masharipov
We say: Saudi Arabia 1-0 Uzbekistan
With a place in the third round of qualifying at stake, this should be a tense but fiery encounter. Both countries are in excellent form and do not concede many goals which makes it a tough one to call, but Saudi Arabia have slightly more quality so we think the hosts will just snatch a victory.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saudi Arabia win with a probability of 45.31%. A win for Uzbekistan had a probability of 31.46% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saudi Arabia win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.33%) and 2-0 (6.41%). The likeliest Uzbekistan win was 1-2 (7.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Saudi Arabia would win this match.
