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[monks data]
Peru national football team
Copa America | Quarter-Finals
Jul 2, 2021 at 10pm UK
 
Paraguay national football team

Peru
3 - 3
Paraguay

Lapadula (21', 40'), Yotun (80')
Santamaria (15'), Cueva (60'), Carrillo (75')
Carrillo (85')
FT
(aet)
Gomez (11'), Alonso (54'), Avalos (90')
Gomez (42'), Villasanti (49'), Espinola (87')
Gomez (45+3')
Peru win 4-3 on penalties

Preview: Peru vs. Paraguay - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's Copa America clash between Peru and Paraguay, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

In the first of the Copa America quarter-finals, Peru and Paraguay do battle in Goiania on Friday with a place in the final four on the line.

Peru managed to finish second in their group with a win on the final day, while Paraguay finished a commendable campaign in Group A in third place, only falling behind Argentina and Uruguay.


Match preview

Peru's Andre Carrillo celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on June 27, 2021© Reuters

Peru will come into this game on a high, having won last time out to move into second place in the final game of the group stage.

Winger Andre Carrillo swept a loose ball home in a crowded box to make the difference in their clash with Venezuela, condemning their opponents to elimination.

That saw them finish the group stage in second spot with seven points, having also picked up an impressive 2-1 win over Colombia.

Sergio Pena gave Ricardo Gareca's side the lead in that game, but Miguel Borja would equalise for their opponents from the penalty spot, before a Yerry Mina own goal restored Peru's lead and saw them collect all three points.

Having reached the final in the last tournament, Los Incas will be keen to again progress through the quarter-finals after a strong group campaign.

Paraguay's Angel Romero in action with Brazil's Eder Militao on June 9, 2021© Reuters

They take on a Paraguay side who also gave a good account of themselves in the group stage, collecting six points from their four matches to finish third.

They started with a 3-1 win over Bolivia, as Alejandro Romero drew them level on the hour mark before an Angel Romero brace settled the game in the final 30 minutes.

Eduardo Berizzo's side would then suffer a narrow 1-0 defeat at the hands of a heavily-fancied Argentina side, but they quickly bounced back with an impressive win over Chile.

In that game, Braian Samudio gave them the lead in the 33rd minute, before Miguel Almiron converted a penalty on the hour mark to seal a crucial 2-0 win for La Albirroja.

While a narrow 1-0 defeat to Uruguay in the final game did see them drop to third spot, Berizzo's men will still be happy with their group campaign, and confident that they can progress with a win over a strong Peru side.

Peru Copa America form:
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • W

Peru form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • W

Paraguay Copa America form:
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L

Paraguay form (all competitions):
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L



Team News

Peru's Andre Carrillo in action on June 27, 2021© Reuters

Even without star forward Paolo Guerrero, who was left out of the squad with Gareca opting to prioritise the new crop of players, Peru have looked strong going forward with Gianluca Lapadula leading the line.

The main threat has come from the three behind him though, with winger Andre Carrillo having netted two goals while Christian Cueva on the other flank and Sergio Pena are also crucial to their attacking play.

Behind them, Yoshimar Yotun and Renato Tapia offer plenty of protection for the defence, while allowing the front four more freedom to attack.

They will be boosted by the return of centre-back Christian Ramos, who served a suspension last time out for picking up his second yellow card of the group stage.

Paraguay will be spearheaded by an exciting line of the likes of Miguel Almiron, Angel Romero and Braian Samudio, offering plenty of pace on the break.

Meanwhile, Alejandro Romero will be hopeful of a return to the starting XI, after being on the bench for the last two matches.

Experienced centre-back Junior Alonso will continue to play a key role at the heart of the back four, while Gustavo Gomez and Robert Rojas will compete to play alongside the Atletico Mineiro man.

Peru possible starting lineup:
Gallese; Corzo, Ramos, Callens, Trauco; Tapia, Yotun; Carrillo, Pena, Cueva; Lapadula

Paraguay possible starting lineup:
Silva; Espinola, Gomez, Alonso, Alderete; Villasanti, Gimenez; Romero, Almiron, Samudio; Avalos


SM words green background

We say: Peru 2-1 Paraguay

In what will certainly be a close encounter between two strong and well-matched sides, we could see this going either way, but narrowly give the edge to Peru on Friday.

Los Incas have recent experience of making it to the final, and that alongside a thriving squad at the peak of their powers could see them outsmart this Paraguay side.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 2.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paraguay win with a probability of 44.3%. A win for Peru had a probability of 30.09% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Paraguay win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.07%) and 0-2 (7.67%). The likeliest Peru win was 1-0 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.16%).


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Data Failed

How you voted: Peru vs Paraguay

Peru
76.7%
Paraguay
23.3%
146
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