Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Serbia win with a probability of 49.1%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Luxembourg had a probability of 25.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Serbia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.32%) and 2-0 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.19%), while for a Luxembourg win it was 0-1 (7.98%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Serbia would win this match.
